For several weeks, the noose has been tightening for Ukrainian troops in Donbass (east). In the Donetsk Oblast, the Russian army is taking advantage of enemy ammunition shortages to go on the offensive. This is particularly the case in Tchassiv Yar, one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in the region.
Perched at the top of a 200 meter high hill, Tchassiv Yar, a small town of 12,000 inhabitants before the start of the invasion, holds its breath. According to official Ukrainian sources, between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian troops have been deployed in the region in recent weeks.
Among the Russian troops present in the sector are units of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, an elite corps of the Russian army. A quantitative and qualitative concentration which leads Frontelligence Insight, an organization specializing in the Ukrainian conflict and open Source research, to say that Chassiv Yar has become “a priority of the Russian command.”
It took nearly a year for Kremlin forces to advance just a few kilometers from the neighboring town of Bakhmout, conquered in May 2023 after months of extremely deadly fighting. But recent progress on the ground has been much faster.
A defensive lock
Moscow’s troops are now approaching the town from both the southeast and the northeast. The Russian air force also appears to be focusing its efforts on the small town, with dozens of airstrikes a day, according to Ukrainian officials. Interviewed by the media The Kyiv Independentseveral soldiers posted at Tchassiv Yar also speak of a sky saturated with Russian drones.
Thanks to its elevated position, but also to the existence of a wide canal on its eastern border, Tchassiv Yar is considered an ideal bastion to ensure defense. The small town is thus perceived as one of the last Ukrainian barriers in the Donetsk Oblast.
“Tchassiv Yar is the center of gravity of the defensive line in the region”, decrypts in the Financial Times Viktor Kevliuk, a military analyst at the Center for Defense Strategies, a kyiv-based security think tank.
Taking Tchassiv Yar or bypassing it would allow the Russians to disrupt the logistical channels that cross the city. Secondly, a conquest of this bastion would open to the Kremlin army the gates of Kramatorsk, a large industrial city located around twenty kilometers further north. Then, hypothetically, those of Sloviansk.
The fall of the city is likely
According to Ukrainian officials, the order would have been given to bring victory to the Kremlin on May 9, for the celebrations of Victory Day of the Second World War or a week later, for Vladimir’s visit Putin in Beijing.
If the date remains of course difficult to anticipate, the Ukrainian military seems to see the loss of Tchassiv Yar as inevitable. Asked by The Economist, Vadym Skibitsky, number two in the Ukrainian secret service, explains that it is only a matter of time before the city falls into Russian hands, after having been bombed to near-total destruction. “Not today, nor tomorrow of course, but it will depend on our reserves and our supplies,” he explains.
Questioned earlier by the British weekly, Pavel Fedosenko, the general of the 92nd brigade, in charge of defending the city, shared the same observation on the inevitable loss of Tchassiv Yar.
With a fire ratio that is too unfavorable and personnel rotations difficult or even impossible, the Ukrainian forces are not expected to hold out for long in the eastern Ukrainian city. “Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. The Russians always knew that April and May would be a difficult period for us,” summarizes Vadym Skibitsky.
A new tactical gain for Moscow which should not, however, disrupt the course of the war, with most specialists estimating the Russian forces currently insufficient to attack the country’s large cities again.
Tristan Hertig
