This race for the White House already brought together all the elements to make it captivating.
An 81-year-old president, candidate for re-election, susceptible at any moment to a misstep risking to topple his entire campaign.
A former president, acrimonious, incapable of accepting his defeat and having to pepper his meetings with voters with appearances in the courtroom to defend himself from having bought the silence of a “porn star”.
And even a Kennedy, a black sheep of the legendary American political family, but influential enough to attract to him a number of voters who could make the difference between the victory of one and the defeat of the other.
That said, no election, no matter how well organized, is safe from current events, from these unforeseen events which disrupt the best strategies. The explosion of the protest movement on university campuses this week will have had this destabilizing effect.
The “Gaza” effect on the campaign
We saw, very early in this fight for the presidency, the effect that the war in Gaza, amplified by the images of the massive devastation caused by the offensive of the Israeli army, would have on a portion of the electorate. American.
Joe Biden, by rushing to Israel after the deadly Hamas assault in October 2023, then provided unqualified support for the desire for revenge of the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
As a result, voters disgusted by the indiscriminate cannonade of Palestinian civilian populations that followed took advantage of the Democratic primaries to express their discontent.
More than 101,000 of them preferred to vote uncommitted (uncommitted) in Michigan rather than supporting their party’s candidate, the incumbent president.
In Wisconsin, last month, more than 47,800 Democratic voters made the same choice, an inevitably alarming result for Joe Biden’s campaign team when we remember that he only beat Donald Trump in 2020 in this state only by 20,682 votes.
The revolt in the universities appears to be just another reaction to the prolongation of the conflict in Gaza with its Palestinian victims numbering in the tens of thousands.
Everything to lose for Biden
This protest movement constitutes a huge embarrassment for President Biden. An avowed defender of the right of association and speech, he cannot oppose it too openly.
At most, the White House was content to denounce the acts of vandalism and anti-Semitic harangues. The unconditional support that Joe Biden, however, persists in reiterating for Israel fuels the anger of academics, an uneasiness which risks having long-term consequences.
These young voters who are part of the Democratic Party’s natural base are falling away, according to the latest CNN poll released last weekend. Biden’s gap over Trump among young voters aged 18 to 34 is now 11 points.
Abortion, the Achilles heel of the Republicans
International political issues have rarely ended up influencing voting in a presidential election. It remains to be seen whether the current conflict in the Middle East will disprove tradition.
Conversely, national issues undeniably shake up the mood of voters. From one election to another, the state of the economy has always had a major impact, which could be the case, this time again, given the feeling of a majority of Americans that business of the country are doing badly, even if the main economic benchmarks say the opposite.
However, access to abortion could be the issue that will make the difference on November 5. Already, during the mid-term elections in 2022, the mobilization of voters had the effect of taking away the momentum of the Republicans.
This time around, Democrats are taking advantage of limits that have mushroomed across the United States on what they call “reproductive freedom” to boost engagement among their electorate.
We also had to hear Vice-President Kamala Harris on Wednesday in Jacksonville, Florida, invoking the name of Donald Trump more than 20 times during her speech.
Voters, we hope, will find another reason to oppose Trump’s return to the White House.
