January 22, 2025Reuters
(Reuters) – Citi raised its oil price outlook for 2025 on Wednesday, due to geopolitical risks in Russia and Iran, but noted that prices were likely to decline in the second half of the year.
“Heightened and sustained geopolitical risks in Iran as well as Russia and Ukraine could potentially wipe out the 2025 oil surplus although Donald Trump appears determined to reach deals,” the bank said in a note.
Citi expects the average price of Brent to be $67 (64.22 euros) per barrel in 2025, compared to $62 previously forecast. It also said it was raising its average forecast for WTI oil to $63 per barrel, without outlining its previous view.
The bank also revised upwards its quarterly forecasts for Brent to $75 per barrel in the first quarter, $68 per barrel in the second, $63 per barrel in the third and $60 per barrel in the fourth, without specifying its expectations either. previous ones.
On January 10, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against more than 100 Russian oil tankers and two oil producers, leading to a surge in demand from China and India in particular, as well as a global rush for supply. of ships, with Russian and Iranian oil traders seeking unsanctioned tankers.
-Donald Trump has since outlined a sweeping plan to maximize U.S. oil and gas production, including declaring a state of energy emergency to speed up permitting, rolling back environmental protections and withdrawing states United States of the Paris Climate Agreement.
Citi said the timing and nature of the US president’s actions regarding Iran and Russia could be defining features of the oil market and pricing during 2025. It forecasts a surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day for the year.
(Written by Ishaan Arora and Ashitha Shivaprasad; French version Bertrand De Meyer; edited by Augustin Turpin)
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