But most oil analysts do not anticipate an increase in the price of a barrel in the years to come. Remember that OPEC + countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are severely restricting their production to support prices, in a context of weak global demand. This OPEC+ reserve capacity therefore acts as a sort of insurance against a significant rise in oil prices.
In addition, despite the efforts of OPEC + to produce below its capacity, most analysts estimate that oil production will exceed demand in 2025. The price of a barrel could therefore even fall this year, threatening Donald Trump’s “Drill baby drill” slogan. “The concrete impact of this slogan on the global oil market will probably be limited.confirms Matteo Mazzoni, Director of Energy Analytics at the consultant ICIS.
However, Donald Trump could decide to apply sanctions on Russian oil more severely, which Joe Biden had avoided doing for fear of a price spike. The Republican could also attack Iranian oil, which could be exported more easily under Joe Biden. However, if exports from these two countries were to drop significantly, a rise in the price of a barrel would not be ruled out. But we’re not there yet…
Energy transition under Biden: a green revolution slowed down by oil?
-For gas, it’s different
On the gas side, the situation is different. Unlike the oil market, gas prices are regional. Currently, gas is around four times cheaper in the United States than in Europe. Under Donald Trump, American natural gas producers will therefore be encouraged to increase their production, to sell it much more expensively in Europe (or Asia). And this without penalizing American consumers through an increase in prices. In the medium term, we also expect an overproduction of natural gas in the world.
We will also have to see what Europe’s attitude will be towards American gas. Will it completely ban Russian gas in 2027, even if it means becoming very heavily dependent on the United States and its gas? To have…
By leaving the Paris agreement, will Donald Trump force other countries to do the same?
