California fires further push the boundaries of climate adaptation

A screenwriter would have written such a scenario that it would have been considered exaggerated.

But we quickly understood, this is not a new disaster film.

The fires that reduced entire neighborhoods around Hollywood, the epicenter of American cinema and ostentatious wealth, to ashes are very real. It is perhaps even, one could say, part of the new reality.

Eight of the ten most destructive fires in California history occurred in the last five years.

But it is worth remembering: this disaster still occurs in one of the places best suited to dealing with forest fires in the world.

Constrained by events, California has become a veritable laboratory for adaptation to fires.

But in light of current events, it is clear that climate reality is once again pushing the limits of this adaptation, which is far from sufficient.

Adaptation

Over the years, California authorities have transformed the architecture of wildfire fighting.

For example, in 2008, they adopted one of the strictest building codes on the continent, which has been strengthened over the years. It aims to reduce the risk of fire spreading by forcing the use of flame-resistant materials. Prohibition on the use of flammable materials, such as wood, for the cladding of houses, the roof, the terraces or the garden shed. A grant program accompanies these rules to help citizens fortify their homes.

Unfortunately, many homes built before the code was adopted are still not suitable.

Along the same lines, California imposes some of the strictest rules in the country on residents for creating a 30-meter (100-foot) buffer around homes. Potential combustibles must be eliminated by continuous cleaning, and a mineralized space of one and a half meters must be installed everywhere around the house.

This helps prevent simple embers falling near the house from causing a fire. Inspectors travel from house to house across the state to ensure that defensible spaces are respected, depending on the jargon used.

Added to this are world-class fire services. Firefighters and experts CalFire, which have an annual budget of more than 6 billion dollars, enjoy a reputation that is well established on an international scale. They are among the best trained in the world.

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The experts who support them on the ground are also at the cutting edge of knowledge, having the most sophisticated technologies to predict the movement of fires, fight them more effectively and optimize evacuations.

This is without mentioning the expertise that California has developed in terms of mapping, thanks to a highly refined tool which makes it possible to increase the effectiveness of interventions.

Are these measures effective? Obviously, they are not foolproof.

But I believe that another question deserves to be asked: how many fires have been contained or avoided thanks, precisely, to these means of adaptation?

We’ll never really know, because when a fire doesn’t destroy, it doesn’t attract attention or make headlines.

But despite everything, the effects of the Los Angeles fires force us to make the following observation: even the best prepared, the most experienced authorities, working in the neighborhoods where the most well-off citizens live, are no longer really able to cope. adapt to fires fueled by an increasingly disrupted climate.

A phenomenon for which California is at the forefront.

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Climate reality

For several years, the Golden State is the scene of what we call a climate whiplash. Like the violent shock of a forward-to-back movement of the head and neck during a car accident, the climate whiplash (climate whiplash) is a change that shifts a region from one meteorological extreme to another dramatically. So, after two years of heavy rains and even floods, a violent drought starting in early 2024 has transformed its lush vegetation into dangerous fuel. And the drought still continues there, while January is normally at the heart of the rainy season.

Add to that the hot, dry winds from Santa Ana, with such powerful force – close to that of a hurricane – that the fire spread largely by air. Winds which normally blow in narrow corridors, in length and in a fairly predictable manner, but which adopted chaotic behavior this time, preventing any intervention by planes or helicopters.

The numerous scientific studies (New window) on the subject tell us that the situation will continue to worsen in the west of the North American continent.

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In-depth rethinking of urban planning

In light of recent events, Californian authorities will have complex decisions to make to better adapt to this new reality.

They could be summarized in two main categories.

On the one hand, California will have to improve and enhance its current policies. For example, it will have to extend the imposition of the building code to older buildings.

It will also have to modernize its hydrant system so that it can respond to large-scale fires in inhabited neighborhoods. These shortcomings limited the intervention when the fire started in the wealthy neighborhood of Pacific Palisades.

It will also be necessary to strengthen measures to eliminate flammable vegetation in the country. The most recent figures (2022) indicate that California has only reached a quarter of its goal (New window) in this regard. Whether through prescribed burning, thinning or selective pruning, it will be necessary to intensify fuel management on the territory.

But if California really wants to go all the way to adapt effectively, it will have to demonstrate great political courage: it will have to rethink the way of planning the urban territory.

Experts have been saying this for years, but the shock caused by this disaster could prompt the authorities to do it. At least in part.

For several decades, urban sprawl in the Los Angeles region has been somewhat chaotic. The Palisades neighborhood, for example, which has been on fire, is a good example of the consequences of poorly planned urban development.

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The houses were built on cliffs or in steep canyons between the mountain and the ocean, where management of withered bushes and shrubs on the hillsides is physically impossible confided to Washington Post Zeke Lunder, an expert in forest mapping. “You’d have to send someone out on a rope with a chainsaw,” he said.

These neighborhoods that extend into the mountains, aligned with the direction of the prevailing Santa Ana winds, complicate matters in terms of evacuation.

No community in the Los Angeles area seems to be able to resist urban sprawl. Clinging between the sea and the mountains, the landscape is unique in the world, and therefore very popular with developers. The resulting land income is obviously an additional motivation to continue with the subdivision.

Disasters are sometimes opportunities to correct past mistakes. They sometimes allow you to start from scratch, to do better. As entire neighborhoods have been charred, will authorities have the political audacity to follow what the experts prescribe?

Limited land use, with denser neighborhoods, made up of fire-resistant buildings and bordered by buffer zones between flammable areas and the city.

Transforming neighborhoods in depth risks fueling tensions with voters. Depriving them of occupying these paradise countries without constraints will require a lot of political courage.

But if it is not the political leaders who force these changes, it will perhaps be the insurers who will take care of it, more and more of them are deserting these risk areas.