Armed conflict dominates the concerns of business leaders surveyed in a World Economic Forum (WEF) report, released Wednesday. This document, revealed on the eve of the opening of the Davos summit, highlights a record level of geopolitical tensions directly impacting the global economy.
“We are unfortunately experiencing a record number of conflicts in the world,” Mirek Dusek, a senior WEF official, said at a news conference.
He cited major crises such as Ukraine, the Middle East and humanitarian emergencies in Sudan, Somalia and Gaza.
According to the survey of 11,000 leaders in 121 countries, 24% of respondents place the risk of armed conflict at the top of the threats for the next two years, compared to only fifth place in 2024.
-Geopolitics and global trade under tension
Fears of “geoeconomic confrontations” occupy the third place of risks for 2025. The rise of protectionism, accentuated by growing trade disputes, is further weakening supply chains. “Many countries are seeking to secure their critical raw materials, essential to their technological and energy transitions,” explains Carolina Klint, of Marsh McLennan. This race for resources is leading to an increase in customs duties and trade barriers, disrupting international trade and reinforcing inflationary pressures. According to the WEF, the number of new restrictive policy interventions has exploded, from 600 in 2017 to more than 3,000 per year in 2022, as reported by Global Trade Alert. The recent election of US President Donald Trump, who will speak in Davos by videoconference, is already raising fears after his threats to impose heavy taxes on foreign products.
Climate and digital challenges
Extreme climatic events, ranked second among immediate risks, are particularly worrying over a ten-year perspective. In California, the devastating fires are a reminder of the urgency of collective action in the face of worsening climate change. Disinformation, too, remains a major issue, occupying fourth place among current risks and first over the next two years. As Davos prepares to welcome world leaders, the challenge will be to find concrete answers to navigate an economic and political environment marked by multiple crises and profound upheavals.
Sami Nemli with agencies / Les Inspirations ECO
