A pro-Russian Austria could bury Ukraine

With a far-right-led government in Austria, a pro-Russian alliance between Vienna, Budapest and Bratislava could emerge. Relations with Europe also risk becoming strained.

Remo Hess, Bruxelles / ch media

The formation of a government coalition in Austria, led by Herbert Kickl, leader of the Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ), seems to be taking shape. The far-right party and the Christian Democratic ÖVP have already agreed on the budget, opting for an austerity policy without raising taxes. If negotiations continue at this pace, the government could be formed in the coming weeks.

However, some obstacles remain, and they do not concern financial policy, but rather Austria’s international relations – notably its relationship with the European Union (EU) and its position vis-à-vis Russia. The FPÖ’s close ties with Moscow are common knowledge.

During the election campaign, Herbert Kickl promised to cut off all support for Ukraine. He rejects the sanctions against Russia, which he describes as absurd, and wants them to be removed. He even accuses the EU, and not Moscow, of “warmongering”. If Herbert Kickl becomes chancellor, will he follow the example of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, undermining Ukrainian interests and hindering the functioning of the EU?

The opposition assures that it can contain Herbert Kickl

For its part, the ÖVP is trying to allay concerns. Alexander Schallenberg, who took over as head of the Austrian government after the resignation of Chancellor Karl Nehammer, went to Brussels on Monday to reassure European leaders. An experienced diplomat and already interim chancellor in 2021, he met Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, High Representative Kaja Kallas and President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola.

In a telephone call with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Alexander Schallenberg assured that Austria would remain a “reliable and strong partner in Europe”, even under an FPÖ government. He said fundamental freedoms and international law would remain paramount. Basically, there is no need to worry, because the ÖVP will keep the situation under control. And what’s more, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen will be there to supervise the government.

A commitment to the EU and its broad political orientations could therefore be included in the future coalition agreement under pressure from the ÖVP. But what weight will this commitment really have?

The FPÖ has already been in government in Austria, but always as a junior partner of the ÖVP. This time, the roles are reversed. Herbert Kickl has already warned the ÖVP:

Before adding that his party was ready to return to the polls if necessary. Polls predict that the FPÖ could make further progress, reaching almost 40% of the vote. For the ÖVP, this would risk electoral collapse.

Will Herbert Kickl’s responsibilities temper his ambitions, like Giorgia Meloni in Italy? Unlikely. Known for his strict ideology, the far-right is staunchly anti-European, which is an essential part of his political identity.

With Herbert Kickl as chancellor, a pro-Russian alliance could form within the EUincluding Austria, Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, and Slovakia led by Robert Fico, who adopts a line openly favorable to Moscow.

The Czech Republic could join this group if, after parliamentary elections scheduled for this fall, billionaire Andrej Babiš replaces the pro-Ukrainian government of Petr Fiala with the populist ANO party. The FPÖ and the ANO already sit in the same European parliamentary alliance led by Viktor Orbán, the “Patriots for Europe”.

The European Union will have to find a response to this rise of pro-Russian forces within it. One thing is certain: the use of financial leverage to coerce Austria seems unlikely. Unlike Hungary, Austria is a net contributor to the EU budget.

Translated and adapted from German by Tanja Maeder

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