On Monday, January 13, we will see an All-American showdown between Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns in the first round of the Australian Open. Navarro, coming off a season that included a quarterfinal at Wimbledon and a semifinal at the US Open, hasn’t looked great in 2025. She has just one double this season , with defeats against Kimberly Birrell and Liudmila Samsonova. . Meanwhile, Stearns is 3-2 in 2025 and has a win over Maria Sakkari, as well as very close losses to Paula Badosa and Daria Kasatkina.
But even if Stearns is in better shape, it’s hard to imagine Navarro going out in the round of 16.
Over the last 52 weeks, Navarro has a holding percentage of 69.3%. That’s not exceptional, but Stearns’s fell to 64.3%. And it was a fragile serve that prevented Stearns from beating Kasatkina in Brisbane. Additionally, even though Stearns has a higher break percentage (39.7%) than Navarro, we’re talking about a 0.3% difference. This is easily offset by the fact that Navarro will perform a much weaker serve than Stearns.
