Can petting Donald Trump serve kyiv’s interests? In any case, Volodymyr Zelensky does not spare his compliments towards the 46th elected American president, who will once again settle down at the White House on January 20. The Republican beat Kamala Harris in the presidential election? It’s because “he was much stronger,” assured the Ukrainian head of state in an interview with American podcaster Lex Fridman broadcast on Sunday. “I love President Trump’s message when he speaks,” he added.
Flattery which initially resonates as a snub to the Joe Biden administration, the cause of a “deep disappointment” on the Ukrainian side, in particular concerning “the delay in the delivery of weapons or the late authorization of strike Russian soil,” notes Nicolas Tenzer, specialist in strategic and international issues and teacher at Sciences Po and author of Our war (The observatory).
It is also a maneuver to curry favor with the president at the head of the country which supports Ukraine the most in terms of arms deliveries. This is the “tactic of cuddle therapy” at the dawn of possible war negotiations, analyzes Nicolas Tenzer. Donald Trump actually said during his campaign that he wanted to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine “in 24 hours”. So if talks were to be organized, you might as well have it in your pocket. “It’s worth a try, and Volodymyr Zelensky understood that flattering Donald Trump could work,” also believes Marie Dumoulin, director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
The United States, a potential asset
Contrary to fears born before Donald Trump’s victory, his return could ultimately not be as bad news as expected for kyiv. Despite the nomination of JD Vance, a fierce opponent of aid to Ukraine, to the vice-presidency, or the declarations of Donald Trump Jr on kyiv which could “lose [son] pocket money”, other contradictory signs give hope for a less harsh policy towards Ukraine.
Among them is the choice of two traditional Republicans, Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, for the roles of national security adviser and secretary of state. A decision which reflects the desire for “a certain balance” and the beginning of a reflection on “the question of how to put pressure on Putin”, analyzes Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London , in a note.
Volodymyr Zelensky himself said out loud that he was banking on Donald Trump’s unpredictable side to put pressure on the Russian head of state. In front of Joe Biden, the leader of the Kremlin “was on familiar ground, while Donald Trump can go further in the threat, he is potentially more dangerous for Vladimir Putin”, agrees Nicolas Tenzer. But this unpredictability can also turn against kyiv.
Ukraine, a strategic subject for Trump
According to observers of the conflict, Donald Trump dreams of winning the Nobel Prize and peace, and ending the war in Ukraine could weigh in his favor. On the contrary, if the Ukrainian army were no longer able to defend itself against Russian aggression, it would “dash Donald Trump’s hopes of being seen as a great peacemaker.” Instead, he would end up with his own version of Afghanistan,” judge Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Charles Kupchan, expert on Europe in a column.
Our file on the war in Ukraine
There remains uncertainty regarding possible negotiations, as Marie Dumoulin notes: “We do not know what format they could have. We also don’t know what Donald Trump plans in his plan.” However, “we need security guarantees for Ukraine,” she insists. Because “a bad agreement would run the risk of destabilizing Ukrainian power, and more broadly Europe,” adds Marie Dumoulin.
These negotiations that Donald Trump wishes to put in place will, finally, be an opportunity to position himself as the “strong man” who stands up to Vladimir Putin. A way to send a message to other states such as North Korea, China or Iran, allies of Russia. “If he lets go of Ukraine, he sends a message of weakness, so he has a rational interest in getting on his side. But is it rational? », asks Nicolas Tenzer.
