Tonight’s NBA clash promises to be a thrilling encounter as the Denver Nuggets welcome the Boston Celtics to Ball Arena for what can be considered one of the most gripping matchups of the new year. This game is between the last two NBA champions, but a closer look at my predictions for Celtics vs. Nuggets suggests the teams are on different trajectories this season.
The matchup is scheduled to begin at 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 7, and although both teams are coming off championship victories, the current odds reveal a notable disparity in their prospects. The Celtics are listed as the +225 favorites to win the title again this season, while the Nuggets, sitting outside the contention zones, are listed at a hefty +1400. What explains this significant difference?
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Two main factors emerge: defensive power and bench depth. Boston enters this matchup with an impressive 26-10 record and has firmly established itself as one of the league’s defensive powerhouses. The Celtics rank sixth in defensive efficiency and fourth in opponent effective shooting percentage. While the Nuggets and their star Nikola Jokic certainly pose a formidable challenge, the Celtics’ defensive depth gives them an advantage.
On the other hand, the Nuggets have struggled defensively this year, currently ranking 19th in defense and 14th in opponents’ effective shooting percentage. Compounding their problems, Denver’s rotation looks shaky, especially with Aaron Gordon dealing with a calf injury. This situation inevitably increases the workload for players like Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., while also relying unexpectedly on Russell Westbrook.
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This lack of depth presents a significant challenge against a Celtics team that not only has possibly the most formidable starting five in the league, but also a well-rounded bench to support them. Thus, containing the Celtics – who have the second best offensive rating in the NBA – will not be an easy task for the Nuggets.
It’s no surprise that the Celtics give up a solid 5.5 point advantage on the road against a competitive, if slightly flawed, team in Denver. In my opinion, this gap seems rather slight considering the current state of both teams.
This season, the Nuggets have also struggled with ball distribution, ranking last in the league in opponent assists per game and possessions. The Celtics, armed with a lineup of players suited to the assist market, should exploit this weakness effectively. Derrick White, for example, has seen his assists decline slightly recently, creating an enticing opportunity with enticing odds tonight. He’s averaging 4.4 assists per game, down from 5.0 in the first 22 games, but recorded five or more assists in both matchups against the Nuggets last season.
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On the rebound, the Celtics certainly need to improve their game; currently, they rank a mediocre 14th in rebounding rate and 15th in opponent rebounds. For the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. must rise to the occasion with Aaron Gordon unavailable. He’s grabbing an average of 6.5 rebounds per game, having secured 10 rebounds in Denver’s last game. With an achievable rebound line set at 5.5, I’m leaning towards betting on the Over in this match.
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For those interested in navigating the betting landscape, check out some helpful tips and strategies for creating same-match accumulator bets.
It’s also worth noting that the Nuggets have only managed to cover the first half spread in 18 of their last 56 games since last season, resulting in a loss of -26.00 units and an ROI of -40 %. For additional insights, take a look at the latest NBA betting trends for the Celtics vs Nuggets game.
