19h16 ▪
6
min reading ▪ by
Luc Jose A.
After two years of marked decline, the real estate market seems to be reaching an inflection point. According to Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, the price correction is coming to an end, which opens the way to stabilization, or even a slight increase during the year 2025. In Paris, the price per square meter has fallen by almost 10% in two years, a similar decline observed throughout Île-de-France. This correction, accentuated by the rise in interest rates, allowed sales to gradually restart. However, market developments will depend on several factors, including the continued decline in credit rates and the ability of sellers to adjust their prices to buyers’ new expectations.
A brutal correction, but necessary
The real estate crisis which began in 2022 has profoundly transformed the market, with a general fall in prices for two years. This correction was particularly marked in large cities, where prices had reached record levels after the health crisis. In Paris, the average price per square meter fell by 9.9%, and stood at 9,321 euros at the end of 2024. The Île-de-France region followed a similar trajectory, with a decline of more than 9% on apartments and houses.
This drop is largely explained by the post-Covid surge in prices, particularly for individual houses, whose demand soared after confinement. As interest rates have risen, access to credit has tightened, forcing buyers to rethink their budgets and sellers to adjust their expectations.
If this correction weighed on the market, it also allowed a gradual restart of transactions. In 2024, real estate sales rebounded by 3% in Paris, after a fall of 13% in 2023. Nationally, 780,000 transactions were recorded over the year, a drop of only 10% compared to 2023. , while the previous year showed a much more brutal fall of 25%. This development suggests that the real estate market is approaching a point of equilibrium, which marks the end of the decline phase.
2025: fragile stabilization
After two years of decline, the real estate market seems to be entering a new phase. If 2024 marked a slowdown in the fall in prices, 2025 could be the year of the rebound. For Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France, prices of old real estate should record an increase of 2 to 3% nationally. This recovery could be explained by the improvement in borrowing conditions and the gradual return of buyer confidence.
Indeed, credit rates play a key role in this dynamic. Currently close to 3.30% over 20 years, they could fall between 2.75% and 3.25%, which would restore purchasing power to buyers. In addition, with a more accessible cost of borrowing, transactions could start to rise again. Century 21 expects 850,000 sales in 2025, a notable increase compared to the previous year, when 780,000 transactions were recorded.
However, this recovery remains fragile and depends largely on the behavior of sellers. If they raise their prices too quickly, the market risks freezing again. “This increase must not exceed 3%, otherwise the market will freeze,” warns Charles Marinakis, who calls on professionals to regulate sellers’ expectations.
The other key factor is based on the debt capacity of households. Despite falling rates, real estate purchasing power remains under pressure, in particular due to the still high level of prices and banking requirements in terms of personal contributions. If household incomes do not keep pace with rising prices, demand could stagnate, preventing a sustainable market recovery.
The real estate market seems to be regaining a certain balance, but uncertainty remains as to the strength of this recovery. Thus, the fall in credit rates could stimulate demand, but a too rapid rise in prices could risk destroying these efforts and making property ownership more difficult. The year 2025 will therefore be decisive. If inflation remains under control and borrowing conditions continue to improve, transactions could pick up again. On the other hand, an excessive increase in prices, beyond the estimated 3%, would risk chilling buyers and freezing the market again. The coming months will be crucial to assess whether this rebound marks a real change or simply a respite before a new phase of stagnation.
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Luc Jose A.
A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I took the commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations and to put into perspective the economic and societal issues of this ongoing revolution.
