War in Ukraine: Russian “meat grinder” tactics

As 2024 passes and winter sets in, Russian forces continue to push back their Ukrainian adversaries.

In total, Russia captured and recaptured approximately 2,350 km² of territory (907 square miles) in eastern Ukraine and the western Kursk region.

But the cost in human lives was horrific.

The UK Ministry of Defense says that in November, Russia suffered 45,680 casualties, more than in any month since its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

According to the latest estimates from British defense intelligence, Russia lost an average of 1,523 men per day, killed or wounded.

On November 28, he said, Russia lost more than 2,000 men in a single day, a first.

“We see the Russians advancing again and again,” said one official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But at a huge cost. »

Authorities said the casualty figures were based on open source information, sometimes cross-referenced with classified data.

In total, Russia lost around 125,800 troops during its fall offensives, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the ISW, Russia's “meat grinder” tactics mean that Moscow loses more than 50 soldiers for every square kilometer of territory conquered.

Ukraine does not allow the publication of its own military losses, so there are no official estimates covering recent months.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims that more than 38,000 Ukrainian troops were lost (killed and wounded) in Kursk alone – a figure that is impossible to verify.

Yuriy Butusov, a well-connected but controversial Ukrainian war correspondent, says 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, with another 35,000 missing.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied US media reports that up to 80,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed, saying it was “much less”.

He did not offer his own figure.

But taken together, the Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures show the terrifying intensity of the fighting taking place in Kursk and Ukraine's eastern regions.

Western officials see no signs of change in this situation.

“It is very likely that Russian forces will continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces using mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains,” one of them said.

The pace of Russia's advance has accelerated in recent weeks (although still far from the speed of its rapid advances of the war's early months), curbed only by a significant change in the ratio of artillery fire between the two camps.

While Russia was once capable of firing up to 13 shells for every shell fired by Ukraine, today the ratio is about 1.5 to 1.

This dramatic turnaround is partly explained by the increase in domestic production, as well as the success of Ukrainian attacks on depots containing Russian and North Korean munitions.

But artillery, although important, no longer plays such a decisive role.

“The bad news is that there has been a massive increase in the use of Russian glide bombs,” a Western official said, “with devastating effects on the front line.” »

Russia's use of glide bombs – launched from planes flying inside Russian-controlled airspace – has increased tenfold over the past year, the official said.

Glide bombs and drones have transformed the conflict, as each side strives to innovate.

“We have reached a point where drone warfare has rendered infantry impotent, even obsolete,” Serhiy, a frontline soldier, told me via WhatsApp.

When it comes to labor, Ukraine and Russia continue to struggle, but for different reasons.

Ukraine did not want to lower the conscription age below 25, thereby depriving it of all young people aged 18 to 24, with the exception of those who volunteer.

Russia, meanwhile, is still able to replace its losses, although President Vladimir Putin's reluctance to lead a new wave of mobilization highlights a number of domestic considerations.

Galloping inflation, overwhelmed hospitals and compensation problems for bereaved families are all factors that explain this situation.

In some regions of Russia, bonuses offered to volunteers willing to join the war in Ukraine have reached up to three million rubles (about £23,500; $30,000).

“I am not saying that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse,” the official said. “I'm just saying the pressures continue to mount.”

Recent events in Syria could worsen Moscow's difficulties, as the Kremlin must decide what resources it can afford to devote to defending President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

But with the situation in Syria evolving rapidly, officials say it is too early to know what impact events there will have on the war in Ukraine.

“There are certainly potential long-term prioritization dilemmas for Russia,” one official said.

“It depends on how the situation develops in Syria. »