After a significant decline in 2023, the drop in greenhouse gas emissions in France shows signs of slowing down in 2024, with even a slight increase in the third quarter, driven by buildings and transport.
In the third quarter, French emissions increased by 0.5% over one year, after a drop of 5% and 2.2% during the first two quarters, Citepa announced on Friday, the organization mandated to draw up the France’s carbon footprint.
– 5.8% emissions in 2023
Over nine months, emissions remain down 2.4%, excluding carbon sinks. But for comparison, last year over the same period of time, the decline was 6%.
2023 ended with a drop in emissions of 5.8% compared to 2022.
The last year where emissions were increasing was in 2021, with an increase of 6.4% due to the post-Covid recovery.
Without going that far, 2024 should logically be a less good year in terms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
“The trend over 12 rolling months is currently -3.1% (moving year),” indicates Citepa, whose data remains provisional for the moment.
The construction sector weighs down the balance sheet
And they do not include the absorption of CO2 by carbon sinks, such as forests and soils, which are highly degraded due to global warming and various pollution, but which are nevertheless essential in achieving France’s climate objectives.
The slowdown in the decline in emissions over nine months comes from the building and transport sectors, whose emissions have started to rise again in recent months.
Thus in the 3rd quarter, if the energy production and industry sectors still contribute to the dynamic of reducing emissions (-12.9%), an increase is observed for buildings as well as transport.
Concerning transport, this increase is mainly due to an increase in road traffic emissions (+1.1% over the quarter).
But it is above all the construction sector which weighs down the balance sheet for the third quarter, with an increase of 11.8%. This strong rebound comes from “the increase in emissions associated with the heating of residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024”.
Less reliance on fossil fuels
On the good news side, domestic air transport, although less compared to international transport, saw its emissions reduced by 4.1% in the third quarter, amplifying the decline already observed in 2023 (-3.5%).
The decarbonization of electricity production continues, due to the reduced use of fossil fuels.
The manufacturing industry also continues to reduce its GHGs, even if the pace slows: after -2.8% in the 2nd quarter, the decline is only 1.3% in the third.
For agriculture, Citepa specifies that “only part of the changes in emissions from the sector” is estimated and that the “virtual stagnation of emissions (+0.3%)” over the first nine months “remains a partial overview”.
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