The presence of European troops in Ukraine is no longer excluded. The return of Trump served as a bottle opener. With a view to a frozen conflict, Europe should play a major role in guaranteeing the security of Ukrainian territory. It remains to be seen in what form.
In one year, the front lines in Ukraine have changed little. European diplomatic discourse has undergone several revolutions. The idea of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is now commonplace. Political decisions, too, suffered some jolts. The most salient of them? Western authorizations to use long-range missiles on Russian territory, without a doubt. But 2025 could mark a new era: that of the presence of European troops on Ukrainian soil.
Until now taboo, the possibility is now regularly mentioned by European leaders. Recently, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the new head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, and even Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have all not ruled out the possibility of seeing European troops on Ukrainian soil. Certainly not to fight directly, but to ensure security guarantees with a view to a possible ceasefire agreement.
Protecting a frozen conflict in Ukraine
January 20, the date of Donald Trump’s inauguration in the United States, will be a turning point in the course of events concerning the war in Ukraine. There is no longer any doubt: discussions will follow quickly to decide on the fate of Ukraine, and determine diplomatic and military solutions.
“The most plausible scenario would be a Korean-style solution to the frozen conflict,” estimates Estelle Hoorickx, researcher at the Center for Security and Defense Studies (CESD). We are therefore not talking about peace, but about temporary cessations of fighting on the ground..»
This truce agreement will have to be negotiated by the Ukrainians and the Russians, with the United States as arbitrator. Europeans also hope to play a central role at the discussion tablebecause their security is directly linked. “Depending on what is decided in the coming weeks, the Ukrainians will certainly ask for security guarantees. Because the territories will be granted temporarily, but not definitively. These Western guarantees should dissuade Russia from taking advantage of this probable cessation of fighting to attack other regions of Ukraine.”
EU troops in Ukraine: “The subject is no longer taboo”
It is therefore from this security perspective that political discussions once again evoke the European presence in Ukraine. The idea is not new: Emmanuel Macron mentioned it last February. But it suggested direct participation in the fighting. Its release sparked not always cheerful reactions from other European countries. Except that from now on, the logic of the European presence is in a purely protective and dissuasive aspect, like what is already done in the Baltic countries or in Romania. “With the return of Trumpthe subject is no longer as taboo as beforecomments Estelle Hoorickx. EU countries realize that they will have to ensure the security of the European continent first and foremost, without American support.”
Today, the question is no longer really whether the European military will set foot in Ukraine, but rather what role they will play there. “Precisely determining the locations and goals of possible deployments is not possible at the moment,” says Estelle Hoorickx.
It’s an open secret: European soldiers are already present in Ukraine. Not to fight directly (apart from via the foreign legions), but above all to help with the logistics necessary for the use of heavy weapons and long-range missiles.
Ukraine: bilateral agreements between countries?
The type of forces put in place (UN soldiers, NATO soldiers with a UN mandate?), as well as the type of defense (land, anti-aircraft, no-fly zone?) however remain to be determined. “We can imagine that NATO troops will be deployed more massively in countries bordering Ukraine, such as Poland,” deduces the specialist in NATO history. It is also possible to see the emergence of bilateral agreements between countries – France and United Kingdom for example –and not necessarily a single multinational organization.”
It is possible to see bilateral agreements between countries to protect Ukraine, and not necessarily a single multinational organization.
Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister, is also trying to bring together the Baltic and Scandinavian countries around him. In any case, the European NATO countries would therefore be more in control than the United Statesalthough the latter will greatly determine the direction taken. That’s the irony of the situation.
“The United States needs NATO”
For his part, Donald Trump repeats that he will condition his aid to NATO countries according to what each member is ready to invest for the organization – the famous 2% of GDP required. “It is in a logic of threat, even if an immediate withdrawal of the United States from NATO seems unlikely due to the economic issues. Moreover, NATO is an instrument of power projection that the Americans cannot do without.recalls Estelle Hoorickx.
NATO is an instrument of power projection that the Americans cannot do without.
In his speech, Zelensky seems increasingly inclined to accept the idea of negotiationswhile the option was still excluded a year ago. “He doesn’t have much choice.. When American aid was blocked in Congress for six months, the situation was very complicated for the Ukrainians. Their offensive thrusts had become non-existent. Without continued help from the USA, they no longer have the capacity to take the initiative.”
A particle accelerator towards the EU?
For Ukraine, hosting European troops on its soil is perhaps an opportunity for an accelerated transition to NATO… or even the EU. “NATO has always said that Ukraine is part of its future, even if not right away. On the other hand, Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU could undoubtedly be accelerated by what will happen in the discussions. observes the CESD researcher.
The presence of European troops in Ukraine may seem risky in certain respects, in the sense where the slightest slip could encourage direct contact. “This is what Westerners have feared since 2022. This is the argument that was always put forward for not sending troops. But we are no longer there, especially since these security guarantees will have to be approved by Russia. We would therefore not be in the spirit of escalation, but rather of a provisional resolution.”
Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU could undoubtedly be accelerated by what will happen in future discussions.
It is indeed unlikely to see the Ukrainians ready to cede territories definitively, because this would call into question their sovereignty. “The situation on the ground is complicated for both parties. By spring 2025, we are also talking about a serious decline in Russian military capabilities. Russia knows that its current strong position on the ground will not last. It is therefore also to his advantage to negotiate something now.”
