China’s refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 at 399 million metric tons (7.98 million barrels per day) and is expected to decline 1.3% to 394 million tons in 2024, China said on Friday. CNPC Economic and Technological Research Institute.
As a result, crude oil imports are expected to fall to 544 million tonnes this year, according to a presentation by the research arm of China’s largest oil producer, although the world’s top importer still accounts for a quarter of global imports.
CNPC’s forecast highlights that China’s crude oil imports are on track to peak next year, as demand for transportation fuel begins to decline for the world’s top crude buyer, ending the period of several decades during which the country was the main driver of increasing oil consumption.
By 2035, China’s overall consumption of refined products is expected to fall by 25-40 percent to 240-290 million tonnes in 2035, compared with the peak in 2023, CNPC said.
Gasoline consumption is expected to fall to 80 to 100 million tonnes in 2035, down 35 to 50 percent from 2023, as electric vehicles are expected to account for half of China’s vehicle fleet by then, the company added. CNPC.
Similarly, the growth of trucks powered by alternative fuels such as electricity, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen, is expected to reduce diesel demand to 100 million to 120 million tonnes in 2035, a drop of 35 to 50% compared to 2023, according to CNPC.
Consumption of jet fuel or kerosene will increase by 70% to 60.8 million tonnes in 2035 compared to 2023, driven by aviation demand.
Along with falling fuel demand, China’s refining capacity is expected to peak in 2028, while its production capacity for ethylene, a basic raw material for plastics, could exceed 90 million tonnes per year. year, added CNPC.
Demand for naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), feedstocks for petrochemicals, hit a record 169 million tonnes this year and is expected to boost China’s oil demand in the future, the report added .
Demand for petroleum-based chemical raw materials is expected to increase by 55% to 210 million tonnes in 2035 from 2023, according to CNPC.
