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– Stock market investor in a state of shock
Stock market, Nvidia, dollar, China… This year once again, Saxo Banque is undertaking a perilous exercise to say the least, namely delivering its “shock forecasts” for 2025. What Saxo Banque calls a “shock forecast” is not a central scenario, but a scenario whose probability is underestimated by the financial community (in the eyes of the Danish bank) and which would have a major impact if it were to materialize. For 10 years, Saxo Banque has been right on many “shock forecasts”, such as the vote in favor of Brexit (which in 2016 was a total surprise for the stock market) or the crazy rise of bitcoin… Overview of “shock forecasts” from Saxo Banque for 2025.
Donald Trump could favor high dollar volatility during his second presidential term, according to the first “shock forecast” from the Danish bank. In 2025, his administration could impose massive tariffs on all U.S. imports: a policy that would limit the global availability of dollars. Global financial players could then turn to alternatives to the dollar, according to Saxo Bank. In such a context, the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could soar. The capitalization of the cryptocurrency market could thus be multiplied by 4. As for the dollar, it could fall by 20% against other major currencies and by 30% against gold.
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Nvidia could be worth twice as much as Apple on the stock market
While Nvidia (which is worth $3,430 billion on the stock market) and Apple (which is worth $3,660 billion) are competing for the crown of the world's largest market capitalization, the king of semiconductors could clearly outrun the Apple firm. next year, being worth twice as much as it on the stock market, according to Saxo Banque. Indeed, global demand for Nvidia's revolutionary Blackwell chip, which boosts computing performance for artificial intelligence, could explode.
China could draw the bazooka to stimulate its economy
While the financial community has so far been generally disappointed by the scale of the stimulus measures orchestrated by Beijing, China could decide to boost its pressured economy via a massive fiscal stimulus plan of 50,000 billion yuan (around 6 500 billion euros) for 2025 and the years to come. Hence a notable positive impact on household consumption, support for inflation and global economic growth, an outperformance of the equity markets of emerging countries compared to developed countries and an increase in commodity prices.
Bioprinted human heart sets biotechnology and 3D printing sectors in turmoil
Researchers could succeed in bioprinting a functional human heart in 2025 using advanced 3D bioprinting technology. The success of bioprinted organs could lead financial analysts to revise their copies of the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors, raising their growth estimates for these segments. A wave of IPOs would then be expected. This wave of innovation and investment could reshape the healthcare sector, judges Saxo Bank.
With the democratization and commonality of electric vehicles, “OPEC is relegated to the dustbin of history»
As electric vehicle prices become more affordable for motorists, oil demand could suffer a major negative impact. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), undermined by disputes between countries and divergent views on desirable oil production levels, could be left by key members and find itself “relegated to the dustbin of history», according to Saxo Banque. In such a context, former OPEC member states could seek to maximize their production to boost their income, thus causing oil prices to plunge.
Faced with soaring electricity prices, the United States imposes a tax on artificial intelligence data centers
In 2025, electricity prices could increase in large population areas in the United States, as American high-tech heavyweights focus on securing a basic electricity supply for their data centers. artificial intelligence, strategic for them. A phenomenon which arouses the ire of households, whose electricity bill is becoming increasingly steep. Eager to calm their voters, local authorities are imposing heavy taxes and fines on large data centers, thereby financing a reduction in electricity prices for households.
A natural disaster causes the bankruptcy of a large insurance company, a first
While this year has been marked by extreme weather conditions, Saxo Banque imagines for 2025 a possible catastrophic storm in the United States, capable of sinking a large insurer having underestimated the risks linked to climate change. Indeed, the Danish bank does not rule out a disaster which would result in compensation claims for the insurance sector representing several times the 40 billion dollars requested during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with the outbreak of a crisis at stake.
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The pound Sterling could erase its post-Brexit discount against the euro
While the pound Sterling has suffered in the wake of Brexit, it could return to its previous levels against the single currency (at 1.27 euros per pound Sterling), according to Saxo Bank. While France and Germany appear to be the sick men of the Eurozone, weighing on the European currency, the UK's relatively more robust growth prospects make the British economy look more attractive. And London is focused on avoiding the most growth-damaging income tax rises and cutting the least productive public sector spending, in order to improve the trajectory of the UK's public finances, supporting the pound Sterling.
Momentum, Capital's daily premium investment letter on the stock market, has been able to make the right choices for its readers in recent years, by correctly anticipating (among other things) the trajectory of the dollar against the euro or even the surge in Massive Nvidia stock market (a stock our readers were able to buy at excellent timings). Discover every day in Momentum our analyzes and our scenarios on the CAC 40 and stocks listed on the stock exchange. By opting for an annual subscription, benefit from 5 months free. To benefit from it, simply click on the link inserted above in this article.
