The debate around the price of electricity in France continues to raise questions. While Prime Minister Michel Barnier announces a reduction in prices for 2025, hidden increases in certain taxes could neutralize this positive effect. Emmanuelle Wargon, president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), tried to clarify the situation during her visit to Good Morning Business (BFM Business) on December 2, 2024.
Towards a stabilization of electricity prices
According to Emmanuelle Wargon, president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), “ prices are now stabilizing between 65 and 70 euros/MWh. By 2027-2028, futures contracts should settle around 65 euros/MWh, barring a black sign or new catastrophe “. After the peaks of 2022, where prices reached 1,000 euros/MWh recalls the president of the CRE on the set of BFMTV, this stabilization therefore marks a return to a certain normality.
However, this drop in market prices does not guarantee a reduction in household bills. Indeed, as RTE (the electricity network manager) recalled, modernizing infrastructure to integrate more renewable energies will require 100 billion euros by 2040. Investments which will ultimately be passed on to consumers.
Upcoming increases for TICFE and TURPE
Despite the announcement of the reduction in regulated prices, the return of the internal tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE) to its pre-crisis level, i.e. 32 euros/MWh, announced by the Prime Minister, has sparked criticism. It must be said that this actually results in its doubling, even if the Prime Minister had focused his communication on a smaller increase than that initially planned.
Projections also point towards an increase in the Tariff for the use of public electricity networks, more commonly known as TURPE. The purpose of the latter is to finance the maintenance and development of electricity networks. But, as mentioned previously, given the investment needs for the modernization of the network, it is only a matter of time before its increase is recorded. Already revised upwards by 4.8% in August 2024, the CRE plans to increase it again by 10% in February 2025. Emmanuelle Wargon nevertheless specifies that the arbitration on TURPE will be made “ end of December or beginning of January ».
As a reminderthe TICFE combined with VAT represents more than a third of the French electricity bill and 40 % if we add TURPE.
The false promise of a reduction?
The government has insisted on the fact that 80% of households subscribing to regulated prices or indexed offers will benefit from a 14% drop in the price of electricity, compared to 9% initially planned. If this announcement seems most promising for the French wallets, its effect could be largely canceled out in view of the tax increases which could soon be implemented.
For businesses, particularly electro-intensive industries, the outlook remains mixed. While some of them have been able to negotiate advantageous pricing conditions, others remain faced with unfavorable contracts. However, « the last companies to fall victim to the price surge will soon see their contracts expire », insisted the president of the CRE, Emmanuelle Wargon, encouraging those concerned to renegotiate their contract.
