Michel Barnier goes all in. We thought it would go to the vote. The Prime Minister finally takes responsibility, by resorting to article 49.3 of the Constitution on the Social Security bill (PLFSS) 2025. “On the basis of article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution, I commit the responsibility of the government, of my government, for the entire PLFSS for 2025,” declared the tenant of Matignon this Monday afternoon.
“I have reached the end of the dialogue with all the political groups while always remaining open and listening,” assured the Prime Minister. “We have arrived at a moment of truth which confronts everyone with their responsibilities,” he warns, adding: “I take mine.” He presents the alternative: having a Social Security budget and a budget or “entering unknown territory”.
“The government only actually agreed to one request that we made,” maintains Marine Le Pen
In the process, the left announced the tabling of a motion of censure, the text of which denounces the government’s “austerity policy”. The suspense did not last long as to the position of the RN. A few minutes after Michel Barnier spoke, he announced his decision: “This text, like this government, deserves censorship,” announced the RN group laconically, on X (formerly Twitter). If Marine Le Pen’s position does not change within 48 hours, when the motion of censure will be defended, the combination of the votes of the left and the RN will therefore bring down the Barnier government, which lasted only three months, the shortest of the Fifth Republic.
“Michel Barnier did not wish to respond to the demands of RN voters. He said everyone will assume their responsibilities, so we will assume ours. We will table a motion of censure, and therefore we will vote for censure of the government,” Marine Le Pen confirmed to the press, ready to vote for a left-wing motion, which is above all “a motion of censure of the government.”
“We went as far as we could in terms of negotiations,” assures the former presidential candidate. If she assures “to have taken a step” on social security contributions, “the government only accepted in reality one request that we made”, maintains Marine Le Pen, on medicines.
“The government will suffer censorship but also dishonor. Because they only negotiated with the extreme right,” denounces the boss of the PS senators, Patrick Kanner, at the Public Senate microphone. “The chaos has a political origin. We have a President of the Republic who since the start of his five-year term has despised Parliament,” adds the communist senator, Pascal Savoldelli, for whom “the President has a very heavy responsibility.”
Final blocking points
If his fate seems sealed today, the Prime Minister has in reality increased his commitments to the RN. After a telephone interview with Marine Le Pen this morning, the Prime Minister announced in a press release that there would be “no dereimbursement of medicines in 2025 in application of the PLFSS”, one of the red lines of the RN. Another red line, the removal of the increase in taxes on electricity, was accepted in the PLF (finance bill). The Senate voted to do so last week. The senatorial majority also renounced on Sunday the increase in the gas tax, another point of difficulty.
In reality, there remained one last sticking point: on pensions. “We have tabled an amendment on the renunciation of the deindexation of pensions. It is up to the government to accept it or not to accept it,” says Marine Le Pen, just before heading into the hemicycle. The government had already agreed to cut pensions in two. Would the Prime Minister be ready to go further? When speaking, around 3 p.m., Michel Barnier sent no sign to this effect, surely confirming the decision of the RN, which was announced a few minutes later.
The head of the RN put the pressure on until the end. During the meeting with the presidents of the common base groups, in Matignon, just before 2 p.m., where the Prime Minister announced the use of 49.3, Michel Barnier received a new call from… Marine Le Pen. She asked him to come back to the deindexation of pensions.
For Hervé Marseille, present at the meeting as president of the centrist Union group in the Senate, we should not give up everything to the RN. “At some point, stop, there is a budget to build. […] We must balance this budget, respond to the need for savings vis-à-vis Europe. […] You have to know how to stop the discussion. […] We are not going to comply with Marine Le Pen’s injunctions every day. […] At a given moment, she cannot make France’s policy,” says the one who chairs the UDI at the Public Senate microphone.
“Julius Le Pen shows that she is the one who decides”
Just before the start of the session, at 3 p.m., the president of the EPR (Renaissance) group, Gabriel Attal, who is returning from Matignon, enters the Salle des Quatre Columns. “This is a serious time. What is at stake in the chamber is part of the future of the country. And the immediate daily life of the French. […] France needs stability. I call on everyone to rise to this moment,” said the former Prime Minister, in vain. In the morning, another leader of the majority did not believe the far-right leader was ready to press the button. “I think that Marine Le Pen will not censor, that it is a huge bluff,” said this parliamentarian, thinking that the RN deputy was not ready “to create chaos”. However, he said that “at Matignon, they are very worried…”
We knew that the Barnier government was under a sword of Damocles, at the good will of the RN. Barring any last minute surprises, here we are, surely sooner than most imagined. A former Macronist minister, who could only observe the situation, last week compared Marine Le Pen to a certain Roman emperor. “It’s Caesar,” he said, “I hope Barnier will hold on.” It depends on Julius Le Pen.” The same described the power of the RN manager as follows: “We find the original sin of this government, which depends on Marine Le Pen. She has her thumb in the middle. She will decide at the last moment whether she puts her thumb up or down. She will show that she is the one who decides. It’s chilling.”
