A recovery of the dollar which weighs heavily
Gold prices (XAU/USD) came under intense pressure on Monday, ending four consecutive days of gains. In Europe, the precious metal is trading around $2,630, a level which reflects the resurgence of the US dollar. This recovery is explained by a clear rise in US bond yields after a period of weakness, reviving appetite for the greenback.
A monetary policy that complicates things
The prospects of an expansionary policy in the United States, marked by the ambitions of President-elect Donald Trump, are fueling speculation about an increase in inflation. This anticipation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its rates or reduce its support measures, an unfavorable scenario for a non-yielding asset like gold.
Also read: Final stretch for the price of gold which risks very big in December!
Despite this, factors like trade and geopolitical tensions continue to support gold as a safe haven, limiting losses.
International tensions that maintain attention
The threat of new customs duties on BRICS countries, announced by Donald Trump, is fueling fears of an escalation of trade wars. At the same time, major developments on the international scene add to the uncertainty. Ukraine is exploring avenues to achieve a ceasefire, while Syria is once again at the center of concern with an increase in airstrikes.
These events, coupled with mixed economic data in China, provide indirect support for gold, although bearish pressures currently dominate.
Technical analysis: worrying signals
From a technical perspective, gold appears vulnerable to further decline. Crossing $2,600 could pave the way for a deeper correction, particularly towards the 100-day moving average located around $2,575.
Conversely, a recovery above $2,643 could give bullish momentum again, with targets close to $2,700. However, only clear signals beyond $2,721 would confirm the end of the corrective phase that began in October.
The impact of US employment figures
The release of Nonfarm Payrolls this week could influence short-term trends. This key indicator of the U.S. economy is closely followed by traders and policymakers because it reflects the overall health of the labor market. A better-than-expected performance could strengthen the dollar, putting further pressure on gold prices.
With a forecast of 183,000 job creations for November, the market expects significant movements. The previous figure, particularly low, suggests a potential surprise.
Between economic dynamics, international tensions and monetary policy prospects, gold remains at the heart of the markets' attention. Investors will need to scrutinize upcoming developments, including economic figures and political decisions, to gauge the trajectory of the precious metal.
