The fall in prices of old real estate has indeed stalled. Prices of old housing stabilized in the third quarter, at -0.1%, according to the Notaires-Insee index, which is the benchmark, published this Thursday. A great first after a year and a half of withdrawal. They had started to slow down in the second quarter (-0.5%), compared to -1.5% in the first quarter of 2024, and -1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Over one year, however, the prices of these goods fell for the fifth consecutive quarter (-3.9%). The decline has, however, lessened compared to the previous two of the year (-5.2% in the first quarter, then -4.9% in the second). In detail, the price drops were almost similar for houses (-3.9% over one year) and apartments (-3.8%), according to provisional data adjusted for seasonal variations.
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Same fight in Île-de-France and in the region
In addition, this quasi stability of prices in the third quarter is found in old housing in Île-de-France. The value of old real estate also stabilized at -0.1%, after seven consecutive quarters of decline (notably -0.9% in the second quarter of the year, and -2.4% in the first). The decline is lighter than the previous quarter for apartments (-0.3% after -0.6%). On the other hand, on the house side, prices started to rise again after seven quarters of decline (+0.4%).
Over one year, the prices of old housing in Île-de-France continued to fall sharply, although at a less sustained pace (-5.3%, after -7.1% in the second quarter, and -8. 1% to the first).
As for old housing in the regions, they also showed virtual stability of -0.1%, after five quarters of decline (including -0.4% in the second quarter of the year and -1.3% in the first). And over one year, the decline was -3.4%, after -4.2% in the second quarter. Here, the decrease in prices remains more marked for houses (-3.6% after -4.4%), than for apartments (-3% after -3.8%).
Sales plunge again
As for transactions carried out over the last 12 months, their number fell again in the third quarter. Thus, at the end of September 2024, 780,000 took place, compared to 792,000 at the end of June and 825,000 at the end of March. The number of transactions accumulated over twelve months has thus reached a new low since 2015. And this annual volume has continued to decrease since the end of September 2021.
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A little hope, however, tends to appear on the side of the real estate agency networks, where the number of transactions seems to be stabilizing. The Laforêt group thus achieved 2.5% more sales in the third quarter than in the same quarter of last year. Century 21 has prided itself on a “Have a good summer” and a “rather positive trend in September”. On the other hand, for Foncia and Orpi, transactions fell by -3% and -7% respectively between July and September.
“The combination of falling prices and falling interest/negotiation rates restores purchasing power to buyers, whose projects are being studied again by the banks”explained Laforêt in his quarterly post released at the beginning of October.
However, caution is required, according to the National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim). “The hardest part has undoubtedly passed on the real estate market, but we must remain patient because real estate cycles are long, and the purchasing capacity of buyers has not yet been fully restored”she believes. Moreover, at this stage it is a phase of “catch-up” rather than “real recovery”. The future will confirm it, or not.
Notary fees will (perhaps) increase
Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced on November 15 an increase from 4.5% to 5% of the ceiling on transfer duties for valuable consideration (DMTO). The latter are better known under the name “notary fees”, due to a misnomer. They constitute the majority of the costs paid when purchasing old real estate.
The departments derive a fifth of their revenue from these fees, which have fallen sharply over the past two years in the face of the real estate market crisis. Raising this ceiling aims to reduce the budgetary effort required of these communities. The choice is left to them, for three years, to apply this measure or not.
This increase in the ceiling will in any case not concern first-time property buyers, Matignon indicated last week, confirming information from the Sunday newspaper. These latter “will benefit from a reduction”it was specified, without further details however. It was also added that “this measure will not apply to new buildings”. New real estate also benefits from a reduced DMTO rate, capped at 0.75% of the price of the property.
(With AFP)
