Michelle Obama is Democrat most likely to beat Donald Trump, poll finds

Michelle Obama is Democrat most likely to beat Donald Trump, poll finds
Michelle Obama is Democrat most likely to beat Donald Trump, poll finds

An Ipsos poll released Tuesday shows that Michelle Obama would be most likely to beat Donald Trump in the US presidential election if Joe Biden were to give up his place to another Democratic candidate.

Across the Atlantic, concerns are being raised after Joe Biden’s disappointing performance in the first presidential debate. While his ability to run for another term is being questioned by some, an Ipsos poll published on Tuesday, July 3, shows that if he were to withdraw, the Democratic candidate most likely to win against Donald Trump would be… Michelle Obama.

According to this survey, conducted among 1,000 people, if the vote were held today and pitted the Republican candidate against the former First Lady, the latter would win with 50% of the vote against 39% for Donald Trump. In this configuration, 3% of respondents would opt for another candidate, 4% would abstain and 3% would not decide.

Michelle Obama is therefore doing better than Joe Biden since, in the context of this poll, and if the election were to take place right now, the Democratic candidate would be tied with Donald Trump: each with 40% of the votes from registered voters. His vice-president, Kamala Harris, would obtain 42% of the votes against the Republican candidate (43%).

Among the other members of the Democratic Party subjected to this poll, none is doing better than Joe Biden. Expected among the potential replacements, California Governor Gavin Newsom would obtain, for example, 39% of the votes, against 42% for Donald Trump.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer would also lose 36% to 41%, while Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear would win 36% to 40%. Finally, Donald Trump would win with 40% of the vote against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (34%).

Given that no Democrat has yet declared himself a candidate to replace Joe Biden in the race for the White House, the results of this poll should obviously be taken with caution. Even more so given that the American presidential election is based on an indirect vote, which means that being at the top of the polls does not guarantee being elected. Americans in fact designate the electors, who themselves are responsible for electing the president.

“I can do this job”

For the first time on Tuesday, a Democratic congressman, Texan Lloyd Doggett, publicly called for Joe Biden to throw in the towel. “I am hopeful that he will make the difficult and painful decision to step down. I respectfully call on him to do so,” he wrote.

If Democrats do decide to change their presidential candidate, they will have to do so at their convention in Chicago in August. That would mean putting the delegate votes Joe Biden won in the primary back into play, which at this point seems unlikely.

So far, party heavyweights continue to support Joe Biden, with Biden himself saying, “I wouldn’t run again if I didn’t believe, with all my heart and soul, that I could do this job.”

This is not the first time that Michelle Obama has been favored in the presidential election polls, as she was already leading in March. At the time, Paris Match reported the words of her office’s communications director, Crystal Carson, according to whom the former first lady had already expressed “several times over the years” that she would not run for president.



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