By Aurian de Maupeou
Co-founder
Updated
01/07/2024
min read
The new rate for use of the gas network (GRDF and some local companies) comes into force on July 1, an increase of 27.5% compared to July 1, 2023. Relative to the annual bill of a consumer heated with gas , the Energy Regulatory Commission announces an increase of 5.5% including tax. Selectra explains to you what we won’t explain to you elsewhere!
How much is ATRD really increasing?
The ATRD is composed of a part fixe (the subscription price that the customer pays every month, whether or not they consume) and a part variable (the price of the kWh, the customer’s consumption). Let’s first calculate the evolution of the ATRD between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024 to see if this incredible +27.5% is fairly distributed among consumers.
Increase in ATRD as of July 1, 2024
| Pricing option | Part | 2023 | 2024 | Evolution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | Part fixe | 42,24 | 51,96 | 23,0% |
| Part variable | 33,23 | 42,37 | 27,5% | |
| T2 | Part fixe | 139,44 | 175,92 | 26,2% |
| Part variable | 8,93 | 11,39 | 27,5% | |
| T3 | Part fixe | 982,92 | 1231,08 | 25,2% |
| Part variable | 6,42 | 8,19 | 27,6% | |
| T4 | Part fixe | 16069,56 | 20469,6 | 27,4% |
| Part variable | 0,87 | 1,11 | 27,6% |
The increase is almost uniform for all consumers. It only weighs slightly more on the price of the kWh than on the subscription, which is already colossal compared to its equivalent for electricity.
Increase in gas prices for a household that consumes 16,500 kWh/year
Let us now calculate the increase for the average French customer heated by gas (16,500 kWh/year) between July 2023 and July 2024 based on the benchmark gas price published by the CRE.
| July 2023 | July 2024 | Evolution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription | 257,18 | 277,43 | 7,87% |
| Price per kWh | 0,08195 | 0,10261 | 25,21% |
| Annual cost | 1609,355 | 1970,495 | 22,44% |
It’s amazing !
On observe an increase in the price of kWh (variable part) almost in line with the increase in the ATRD. Why is this surprising? The supply portion is increasing, while the PEG price (basis for calculating the price of kWh) is down compared to summer 2023. Even more surprising, the subscription price is increasing very little. This includes the fixed part of the ATRD, a tax called the CTA, a supplier part and VAT at 5.5%. There is only one explanation for this. : a reduction in costs related to the supplier share. It will be interesting to check what is happening in the actual price lists of suppliers, who often struggle to do better than the benchmark gas price.
The Minister of Economy announced in May that the battle against inflation had been won. And, indeed, the increase in the gas network usage rate does not come from there. It can be explained very simply: gas consumption in France has collapsed in recent years, and the costs of network managers (mainly GRDF) continue to increase. It is therefore necessary to spread these increasing charges over fewer kWh consumed. This mechanism explains the explosion in the price of kWh: The less gas the French consume, the more the revenues of network managers fall, the more their prices increase to balance their costs.
Source: GRT Gaz – Graphic: Selectra
The profitability and existence of GRTGaz threatened?
GRTGaz is therefore very concerned by the situation: its profitability; and even its existence, are at stake. It is in this context that the network manager has published very useful data on its website. Gas consumption in France between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024 fell by 25%. A drop that ATRD 6, which covered the period 2020-2024, had not anticipated, and which therefore generated a hole in the revenues of GRDF and GRTGazthe Engie subsidiaries which transport gas to consumers.
The two culprits of this increase are not GRDF and GRTGaz, but marked energy sobriety :
- the drop in climate-adjusted consumption is –21,1 % between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024,
- and milder winters which explain 3.9 points on the -25 % decline observed over the period (source).
What to do ?
The situation is not tenable. Such an increase undermines the price competitiveness of gas compared to electricity.. Especially if we add the preference of climate-sensitive consumers for electricity.
The carbon impact of gas is much higher than that of electricity
32 grams of CO2 per kWh in 2023 for electricity, against 227 grams per kWh for gas over the same period.
The risk ? An acceleration in the flight of customers who can afford it towards electricity, thanks to the development of heat pumps and self-consumption.
What about the green gas promoted by GRDF?
For GRDF, campaigns to promote green gas (see the very successful video featuring Jamel Debbouze) will not be enough. No more than the development of biomethane, still marginal (around 2% of gas consumed in France) and highly subsidized. The trail ofhydrogen injection in the gas network is promising, but only in the long term, both for technological and economic reasons. A reduction in the network infrastructure does not seem to be on the agenda either.
Do you think that the gains made thanks to the Gazpar meter will save the gas network?
