The problem is ten years old, and could well have eased, without this war decreed by the Russian leader on the borders of Europe, and this annoying inclination of the Russians for strong alcohol. In a recent investigation translated into English by the independent Russian media Meduza, Cherta Media looked at the creeping demographic crisis in Russia. Today, in a country-continent which has just over 144 million inhabitants according to the latest World Bank censuses, women represent approximately 54% of the Russian population, compared to 46% for men.
One of the most marked gaps on the planet, in a country where the birth rate is at its lowest level since 1999, the number of births having fallen below 100,000 in June, according to the Rosstat agency. From January to June 2024, 599,600 children were born in Russia, 16,000 fewer than during the same period in 2023. At the same time, the decline of the Russian population accelerated by 18%, with 49,000 deaths additional recorded in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Ukraine – Russia: military planes of the war
In July, Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the situation “catastrophic” for the future of Russia. Enough to make the head of the Duma committee for the protection of the family, Nina Ostanina, say that the motherland demanded a “special demographic operation”Russian version of the plan “demographic rearmament” Macronist, no doubt.
Soviet overtones of toxic masculinity, the war in Ukraine and the prevalence of alcohol: key factors
Cherta Media is not the first media outlet to address the issue of gender imbalance. In fact, the concern is decades old, with roots in the tumultuous 20th century. Thus, the imbalance between the sexes in Russia would result directly from the unrest of the early 20th century, involving a large number of men on the ground, and which brings together the Russian civil war, world wars and massive repressions of the 1930s, under Stalin.
However, these events do not explain why the gap persists in the second part of the 20th century, until today, according to demographer Alexey Raksha interviewed by Cherta. This is where extreme virility and alcohol come into play. “One of the main factors is toxic masculinity, a type of male behavior prevalent in some countries, including Russia”sociologist Irina Tartakovskaya explains to the media.
Male individuals pay less attention to their health, convinced that a “real man” does not complain, and chop wood with an ax shirtless in the snow, basically. The image is caricatured, but the figures show that in the 1960s, male mortality began to increase in all socialist countries, where ideological norms tended to favor the interests of society over individual well-being , promoting male heroism.
But the main reason for the abnormally high mortality rate among men in recent decades is alcohol abuse, explains Alexey Raksha.
Every year, at least 150,000 to 200,000 people die in Russia from alcohol, and about 80% of them are men.
Illnesses, risky behavior, offenses and even crimes… The consequences are numerous.
Policies and customs duties which impacted drinks with “low” alcohol content, such as beer, led in the 2010s to a shift in consumption towards strong… and more deadly alcoholic drinks. The situation was further exacerbated at the start of 2024, with wine and beer being heavily affected by restrictions, and could worsen with the return of soldiers from the front, which would already cause a wave of crime.
The war in Ukraine, a harbinger of a coming demographic crisis
Last blow in the Russian demographic report: the war in Ukraine, of course, and its procession of deaths in the “Ukrainian chopper”. About 2-3% of the Russian male population is involved in the war. On certain days, the conflict leaves more than 1,000 dead on the Russian side according to figures from Western observers. At the end of 2024, American intelligence services estimated the number of confirmed Russian deaths on the battlefield at 120,000 since the invasion in February 2022. Today, life expectancy in Russia is lower than this. than it was in 2018-2019, and the gap between male and female mortality has widened to reach almost 11 years. Not to mention the men who flee the country to find peace elsewhere. Enough to explain the drop in the birth rate which is causing the Russian authorities to panic.
In fact, Moscow may be worried, because an unbalanced population could mean future problems on the economic… and military front: who will Russia send to defend it if it no longer has men? In the meantime, it is the social consequences that are worrying. According to To Be Precise analysts taken over by Cherta, “the high male mortality rate could lead to an increase in the number of widows and single mothers, and if the state does not act and provide support, this could lead to an increase in poverty.” About 40% of families with children in the country are made up of single mothers, a very vulnerable group, but still insufficient to put out the Russian fire.
This article was originally published on September 13.
