The ruble fell against the dollar and the euro on Monday, but held its ground against the yuan as the end-June tax deadline and the central bank’s reduction in daily foreign exchange sales put pressure on the Russian currency.
At 0825 GMT, the ruble was trading 0.4% lower at 86.05 against the dollar. It was down 2% at 93.74 against the euro.
Last month, trading in both currencies shifted from the Moscow Exchange to the less liquid and more volatile interbank market due to U.S. sanctions against the exchange.
The average mixed dollar-ruble rate, calculated by the LSEG and based on data from international brokers and counterparties, stood at 85.74.
The ruble initially fell below 11.80 per Chinese yuan, but by late morning it had recovered to 11.72, up 0.1%.
Traders said several factors would weigh against the ruble heading into the new month. It no longer enjoys the support of exporters who convert their currencies into rubles to pay end-of-month taxes, with the deadline set for last Friday.
“Today, at the start of trading, we expect continued pressure on the national currency amid a decrease in the supply of yuan from exporters after the June peak in tax payments has passed,” said Bogdan Zvarich of Banki.ru, anticipating a push of the yuan towards 12 rubles.
A second factor is that the central bank is reducing its daily foreign currency sales from Monday to the equivalent of 8.4 billion rubles per day, compared to 11.8 billion rubles in the first half of the year. These sales reflect inflows and outflows from the National Wealth Fund and are distinct from the foreign exchange transactions that the bank carries out on behalf of the Ministry of Finance.
Finally, last month the government reduced from 80% to 60% the mandatory share of foreign currency earnings that exporters must convert into rubles, easing capital controls in part because of the recent strengthening of the ruble.
Brent crude, the global benchmark for Russia’s main export, was up 0.65% at $85.55 a barrel. (Reporting by Reuters, Writing by Mark Trevelyan, Editing by Christina Fincher)
