Minister Aurore Bergé is a candidate for re-election as a deputy in the 10th constituency of Yvelines. What are her chances of being re-elected in the legislative elections and with what result?
Several ministers have committed to the early legislative elections of 2024 and Aurore Bergé is one of them. Elected as a member of parliament before becoming a minister, the one in charge of Equality between men and women is a candidate for re-election in the 10th constituency of Yvelines during the elections of June 30 and July 7. Is Aurore Bergé taking a risky bet by letting the ballot boxes decide her political future and in particular her future in government? The results of the first round of the legislative elections expected this evening from 8 p.m. will answer this question.
The Macronist elected in the same constituency in 2017 and 2022 can rely on this to estimate the risk as reasonable, even slight, but that is without taking into account the landscape and the French political context in full mutation since the announcement of the dissolution of the Assembly. Three blocs emerged during the campaign: that of the majority, that of the extreme right which continues its rise in light of the last elections and that of the left which united to block the National Rally and break with the policy of Emmanuel Macron. Aurore Bergé, like the rest of the presidential camp, shot at these two rival blocs, calling them extreme and sending them back to back, both to try to convince in her constituency and at the national level. But will the strategy prove to be profitable at the end of this Sunday’s vote?
What result for Aurore Bergé in the legislative elections?
Aurore Bergé managed to get elected in a historically right-wing constituency in 2017 and to keep her seat as a deputy in 2022. The minister’s past within the UMP makes her a candidate compatible with a right-wing electorate and the shift made in recent months by the presidential camp has reinforced this positioning. The minister did not have an opponent from the right-wing Les Républicains party in 2017 and managed to win largely against the various right-wing candidate with 46.63% of the votes in the first round. She confirmed her score in the second round with 64.75% of the votes. The return of an LR candidate against Aurore Bergé did not bring the MP down in the votes: she came in first in both rounds ahead of the representative of the Union of the Left.
But more than the right, it is the extreme right of the National Rally and the union of the left under the New Popular Front that competes with Aurore Bergé’s candidacy. Moreover, the RN came out on top in the 10th constituency of Yvelines during the European elections with 23.79% of the vote, just ahead of the majority and its 18.29%.
The match therefore seems possible between Aurore Bergé and the other candidates, especially since all political families will be represented: the Union of the Left, the National Rally and The Republicans. If the minister seems able to win over the left and the right, the fight could be close with the National Rally.
A “bulwark” for the New Popular Front, what about the National Rally?
Ranked third in the polls of legislative results published before the reserve period, the presidential majority is not unanimous on the voting instructions concerning the second round. If the heavyweights of the majority have adopted the “neither-nor” strategy by refusing to bend in favor of the RN or LFI which they consider to be two equivalent extremes, others maintain the vagueness. Minister Aurore Bergé, for her part, asked, at the start of the week on Europe 1, to be asked the question after the publication of the results of the first round of the legislative elections this Sunday at 8 p.m. However, she assured that according to the polls, rather the majority’s reading, “the best bulwark against the Popular Front is not the RN, it’s us!”.
The minister gave the impression of mainly wanting to block the alliance of the left by not even mentioning the idea of a blockade against the RN. However, it was by promising to block the RN that Emmanuel Macron was elected in 2017 and 2022. And in the columns of the Echo Républicain, Aurore Bergé explained that it is “in the face of the rise of ‘extreme right’ that the desire to represent herself imposed itself on her ‘quite obviously’. The minister promised on Sud Radio that she “will always fight the extreme right and the RN. It is even the source of [son] political commitment” before adding: “Unfortunately, it must be noted that some LFI candidates are no better.”
What did the polls say about the legislative elections?
The results of the polls on the legislative elections which could be published until Friday June 28 at midnight announced a victory for the National Rally and its allies, in particular pro-Ciotti Republican elected officials, at the national level. The presidential majority came not in second but in third position behind the union of the left under the banner of the New Popular Front. Emmanuel Macron’s camp was credited with 19% to 22% of voting intentions when the left was around 30% and the far right with its allies climbed between 33 and 37%.
These polls reflect trends observed at a specific moment, but cannot be considered as accurate predictions of legislative results. Especially since the polls are carried out at the national level while the legislative elections are more like 577 local elections.
