In the running for a third term as a deputy, Marine Le Pen is seeking the seat in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Will his result be as convincing as during his re-election?
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19:08 – Where is Marine Le Pen spending the evening?
It is not in Paris but in her stronghold of Henin-Beaumont that Marine Le Pen is spending the evening this Sunday. The former president of the National Rally will learn about the local and national results at the Abbey municipal hall, from where she will speak.
18:51 – Marine Le Pen on campaign
The RN leader in the National Assembly led a field campaign. She notably visited the Carvin market and her stronghold in Hénin-Beaumont for the music festival. His watchword: reassure voters about the RN. “You can very well be a foreigner and live in France as long as you respect the law and culture of our country. […] “What we demand is that those who come from abroad behave correctly,” she insisted during her campaign. She also wanted to convince the undecided.
18:29 – Marine Le Pen and her party facing justice, a danger for the legislative elections?
Marine Le Pen will be tried in the autumn. She has been sent to the Paris Criminal Court in the so-called “parliamentary assistants” case. From 30 September to 27 November, she will be in court with 26 other people for embezzlement of public funds, all suspected of being involved in using EU money to pay assistants to MEPs who were actually working for the party.
His party was also convicted in the campaign kits affair. He will have to pay a fine of 250,000 euros. Marine Le Pen’s party was accused of having used a scheme to divert, to the benefit of the microparty Jeanne, the reimbursements of campaign expenses granted to its candidates in the 2012 legislative elections.
18:00 – The legislative elections, a first step towards the presidential election?
Marine Le Pen has handed over the legislative campaign to Jordan Bardella but has not lost sight of her real objective: the 2027 presidential election. “I have always told the French people that for months, we have been working with Jordan Bardella as part of an executive couple […]. Me towards the Presidency of the Republic, him towards Matignon”, she said on the set of TF1 the day after the announcement of the dissolution. The result of the legislative elections is a real test for the election which will take place in three years.
This Sunday, as voters head to the polls, Marine Le Pen hopes to see her party take the lead in the first round of these early legislative elections. The leader of the National Rally in the Assembly has high hopes for this election, especially after her party’s success in the European elections: “June 30 could be the second wave of the tsunami. The first is strong, the second sweeps everything away,” she wants to believe, as she told the daily newspaper The world.
Marine Le Pen wants as many RN candidates as possible to be directly elected or to reach the second round. She remains convinced that her party can obtain an absolute majority at the end of these elections, even if the polls published before the reserve period on Friday, June 28 at midnight predicted that it would be rather relative. They, in fact, counted more on an RN victory with more than 30% of voting intentions, knowing that these estimates reflect trends observed at a specific time. The left-wing union was given only a few points behind, fluctuating between 25 and 30%. The presidential majority remained behind, hovering around 20% of voting intentions.
“I think we’re going to have an absolute majority. The polls are not reliable because, two years ago, we were given between five and 40 deputies (the RN obtained 89). Last time, it was the low turnout that prevented me from being elected in the first round. This time, with the turnout that is expected, we could have 10 to 15 elected in the first round and there could be more than 300 three-way races,” she explained to Telegram. For Marine Le Pen, this is also a sine qua non condition for governing because without it the party “would not be able to pass a single measure” and “would face a motion of censure within 48 hours”. If this were to happen, Marine Le Pen also believes that Emmanuel Macron should resign: “the latter will not have a majority and will face blockages from the institutions and the Constitution does not allow any other possibilities than resignation”, she assured on RTL on June 25.
In the event of a victory for the RN in terms of the number of elected representatives, Marine Le Pen wishes to “remain at the head of the majority group and be a support for the Prime Minister”, as she reaffirmed on RTL, Tuesday June 25. A role that would suit her well, assuring that she will “absolutely not be under the authority” of Jordan Bardella but that “the fact that the president of the group and the Prime Minister are extremely close politically is rather good news”, he said. she declared to the newspaper The worldShe also wants to keep some time to prepare for the 2027 presidential election: “Being a minister does not allow me to continue working on my presidential stature.”
What result for Marine Le Pen in the legislative elections?
Marine Le Pen also has another important goal: to be re-elected. in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais, around Hénin-Beaumont-Carvin. Facing her are several adversaries, first and foremost the PS national secretary in charge of disability, Samira Laal, for the New Popular Front. She could prove to be a strong opponent, even if she is much less identified than her replacement Marine Tondelier. The lawyer Geoffrey Fournier, delegate of Eric Zemmour’s party in Pas-de-Calais, is also there. In 2022, there was no Reconquest candidate. Also in the race are Dorian Lamy, UDI candidate attached to the presidential majority, Michel Lanoy, 59, representing LR/Oser la France, the ex-LFI Gautier Weinmann for the Sovereign Republic and finally Dominique Gai for Lutte Ouvrière.
Marine Le Pen is seen as the favorite since she is already well established in the department. In 2022, during the last legislative elections, she was elected with 61.03% of the votes in her constituency, during the second round against the ecologist Marine Tondelier, who obtained 38.97%. The MP even almost passed the first round with 53.96% of the votes but was prevented from doing so by the technical threshold necessary for the validation of the election in the first round. She has held this position since 2017, when she obtained 58.60% of the votes cast in the second round.
The RN list also largely dominated the European elections with 61% of the votes. A completely exceptional score which demonstrates that the constituency is now an electoral stronghold of the National Rally.
