The dollar crossed its highest level in 13 months this Friday, continuing its upward momentum as investors carefully scrutinize the outlook for the monetary policy of the American Federal Reserve (Fed). At the same time, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin reached a historic threshold, flirting with $100,000.
The dollar index rose 0.08%, reaching 107.15, after coming close to its highest level since October 4, 2023, at 107.18. No future data seems able to hinder this rise in power. Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, explains: “ Now it's just a question of determining the triggers… And it's obvious that the question is about whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December ».
According to CME Group's FedWatch service, expectations of such a reduction in December remain volatile. Investors estimate a 57.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, up from 72.2% the previous week.
For its part, Bitcoin briefly reached an all-time high of $99,388 before seeing its gains moderate. The cryptocurrency has seen a rise of more than 40% since the U.S. election in early November, buoyed by expectations that President-elect Donald Trump would ease regulations on cryptocurrencies. During the last exchanges, its price increased by 1%, to settle at 99,028 dollars.
The dollar has gained about 3% since the start of the month, fueled by expectations that inflation will rise under Trump's policies, which could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates and thus exert pressure on other currencies.
The pound sterling lost 0.14% in recent trading, stabilizing at $1.25705. It had previously reached its lowest level against the dollar since May 14, at 1.25655. For its part, the euro, which represents a significant part of the dollar index, fell 0.05%, amounting to 1.0469 dollars, after falling on Thursday to its lowest level in 13 months, at $1.0461.
The euro has become one of the main victims of the rise of the dollar, exacerbated by uncertainties linked to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as by the unstable political situation in Germany, the largest economy. of the European Union. These factors have put additional pressure on the European currency.
The Japanese yen, for its part, has lost more than 7% against the dollar since October and crossed the symbolic mark of 156 yen per dollar last week, a threshold not reached since July, thus fueling speculation on new currency support measures from the Japanese authorities. Finally, the dollar gained 0.2%, reaching 154.84 yen.
Finally, the New Zealand dollar hit its lowest level in a year, settling at $0.58265, as expectations grow around a possible 75 basis point interest rate cut by the bank center of the country next week.
