((Automated translation by Reuters, please see disclaimer https://bit.ly/rtrsauto))
JP Morgan forecasts the price of Brent oil to average $73 per barrel (/bbl) in 2025 and end the year firmly below $70 per barrel, with US West Texas Intermediate at 64 dollars per barrel, the bank said in a note Friday.
“Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we forecast a significant surplus of 1.3 mbd (million barrels per day) and average Brent of $73,” the note said.
The bank forecasts a deceleration in global oil demand growth from 1.3 mbd this year to 1.1 mbd next year, adding that China is expected to lead oil demand growth for the last time before India takes the lead in 2026.
JP Morgan also said large surpluses would drive Brent prices below $60 by the end of 2026, with an average forecast of $61 per barrel for Brent and $57 per barrel for oil. West Texas Intermediate.
She adds that these forecasts assume that OPEC+ maintains its current production levels.
Brent oil futures LCOc1 were trading near $74.56 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. WTI oil futures CLc1 settled at $70.37 per barrel.
Weak oil supply and demand fundamentals could help US President-elect Donald Trump deliver on his promise to lower oil prices, the bank noted.
“Trump's energy agenda poses downside risks to oil prices due to deregulation and increased U.S. production, while posing upside risks by putting pressure on Iran, the Venezuela and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues.”
