The day after the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, the Democratic camp is feeling cold, given their candidate’s poor performance. Joe Biden has emerged extremely weakened, to the point that the question of whether he will continue to run for a second term arises. Interview with Romuald Sciora, director of the Iris Political and Geostrategic Observatory of the United States.
How do you assess the debate?
I was surprised to see how many Democrats close to Biden or members of the party were astonished by the very poor performance of their champion and panicked. It was more than predictable. Very senior Democrats suspected what was going to happen. For years, some have been pointing out a form of Alzheimer’s in Biden. It has been three or four years now since he presented his granddaughter to the cameras of the whole world as being his son Beau, who has been dead for several years. Biden still has his intellectual faculties, but they are greatly diminished. Deciding to let him run is heresy to me.
After this severe setback, is it hopeless for the Democrats?
This is where Trump made a mistake. By deciding to have a debate so early in the campaign when there was no obligation to do so, Trump took a considerable risk. In this debate, there is no discussion that Trump completely supplanted Biden, perhaps he lost a lot too. If the debate had taken place in September, as was planned, it would have been absolutely too late for Democrats to choose another candidate. It would have been too chaotic. On the other hand, today, if there is awareness around Biden of the need for another candidate, then things could be different. Trump could find himself facing a young, professional, charismatic, more competent opponent, who would become the darling of the American media and the public, especially if it is a woman. There would be a chance that Trump would be beaten. If Biden stays in the race, there is no doubt that Trump will be re-elected.
How serious is the question of replacing Joe Biden among Democrats at this point?
Joe Biden wanted to run because he doesn’t want to leave his post. If he does not withdraw from the race knowing that he is increasingly unwell, it is because Joe Biden does not want to give way to the one who would logically become the candidate, his vice-president, Kamala Harris. Joe Biden and his entourage hate Kamala Harris. They can’t feel each other. Never has a vice president been so marginalized in recent American history. Whereas Kamala Harris is a very competent woman.
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Is it possible to change candidates at this stage of the campaign?
The first scenario is that Biden still has enough strength and power to impose himself on his immediate entourage, but also on his party. If the Democrats want to push Joe Biden to withdraw from the race, they will have to prove that he is not fit to be president next year, but that would imply that he was not fit to be president at the time. So it is quite complex. The Democrats would have to propose a impeachment (impeachment) for health reasons to force him to step down… That will not happen.
The most likely would be that the Democrats manage to convince Joe Biden to withdraw from the race. Kamala Harris then competes in his place, and this could create “Kamala mania”. But the best scenario would be for Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidency of the United States altogether. We would have Kamala Harris automatically becoming president, and no other Democrat would dare run against her. We would have a woman president of the United States overnight, which would create great momentum in her fervor. She could be carried by a wave which would give her a good chance of beating Donald Trump. Because if she was only going to compete as a candidate, with Joe Biden presiding the country, she would risk seeing other Democrats decide to enter the race against her. And many Democrats in Joe Biden’s entourage would do everything to block Kamala Harris’ path before the convention (supposed to officially nominate the Democratic candidate in about six weeks).
