In a quarterly report titled “A Monetary Pivot Paving the Way for a New Phase of Easing,” Attijari Global Research (AGR) notes that the end of BAM’s monetary tightening cycle and the start of a new accommodative cycle could be justified by the confirmed decline in inflationary pressures, the new imperatives of supporting domestic growth and the change in monetary course on a global scale.
AGR explains that this monetary pivot could continue in a general context marked by the confirmation of the return of real rates to positive territory, a transmission of monetary tightening towards lending rates, the start of State social projects and targeting measures subsidies and the absence of visible tension on the dirham despite volatility movements on the EUR/USD parity.
Thus, and given the reassuring inflationary forecasts and the visible easing of pressure on national savings, BAM would be willing to continue its monetary easing in 2024, estimates the research office, noting that this new direction of lowering key rates internationally would facilitate external financing of the Treasury and limit pressure on the banking liquidity deficit.
In this sense, the same source estimates that Bank Al-Maghrib could make at least one reduction in its key rate during the next 12 months under the assumption of a controlled inflationary environment, noting two major trends which support this new accommodating strategic shift. , namely favorable prospects for continued disinflation and the monetary pivot enacted by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June 2024.
Par Khalil Rachdi
06/30/2024 at 9:56 p.m.
