Oil gains on geopolitical risk and ahead of US inflation

London: Oil prices were moving in the green on Friday, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a slowdown in American inflation which could increase the probability of a rate cut this year, which would be favourable to demand.

At around 10:35 GMT (12:35 CET), the price of a barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. North Sea, for delivery in August, which is the last day of trading, rose by 0,75% has 87,04 dollars.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in determining the price of crude oil and as a raw material for oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the energy exchange specializing in energy.), for delivery the same month, amounted to 0,80% has 82,39 dollars.

By focusing on “the risk“, investors are carrying crude prices, estimate DNB analysts, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Fears of an extension of the war between Hamas and Israel have grown following an escalation of violence on the Israeli-Lebanese border and threats.

Attacks by Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, against Israeli positions and those of the Israeli army against targets in Lebanon continued, with the Lebanese movement reporting the deaths of four fighters.

The market is also counting on an increase in seasonal demand, DNB experts add.

Furthermore, the PCE inflation index for May, the barometer favored by the American central bank to guide its monetary policy, is expected to slow slightly over one year, according to analyst consensus.

The figure is likely to show “a weakening of inflationary pressures in the US economy, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts later this year“, points out Bjarne Schieldrop, de SEB.

However, a rate cut would be “positive for the economy and markets in general” and so “for oil demand” and its price, concludes the analyst.

Usually a bearish factor, U.S. crude oil inventories rose sharply in the week ending June 21, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), but investors largely ignored the data, notes Tamas Varga of PVM Energy.

The analyst cites other “factors that drive the price of oil“, as “Ecuador’s ongoing weather problems (…) which are removing 100,000 barrels per day of production“.

The country was in fact forced to suspend operations at several of its oil wells due to heavy rains.

(c) AFP

Commenter Oil advances in the face of geopolitical risk and ahead of US inflation

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