The courses of wheat tender have once again crumbled between the sessions of June 19 and 26 on Euronext and, by ricochet, the physical market French, coming close to the €230/t mark for September delivery on Euronxet. The main bearish elements: harvest pressure and strong international competition.
The cuts are progressing well and in good conditions in the United States. Russia, the first harvest results would be positive. However, we must remain cautious: other sectors affected by climatic hazards have not yet been harvested. There Chine should also reap a good harvest, and the surface areas have been revised upwards in Argentina.
On the international competition side, the most tangible proof is the latest Egyptian purchase. The origins of the perimeter black Sea took ownership of the entire call for tenders. There France made offers, which turned out to be more expensive. In total, Egypt acquired 470,000 t, including 180,000 t from Russia, 180,000 t from Romania, 60,000 t fromUkraine and 50,000 t of Bulgaria. However, potentially bullish elements should be noted in the longer term. First of all, the harvest in France is not looking good. In fact, rain is expected in the coming days. In Indeafter having denied outright, the government could finally reduce taxes on imports. In addition, it now limits the stocks held by traders.
On the French physical market, millers are making some cover purchases (also on Euronext), as are animal feed manufacturers, taking advantage of the low price level, and this over long periods. French origin still lacks competitiveness towards European customers (Spain, Belgiumetc.).
River freight: creation of a commission to compensate for damages linked to Paris 2024
The costs of fret fluvial did not change between June 19 and 26, due to desperately quiet activity. On the Seine basin, transport to the port of Rouen is non-existent. In the absence of ships to load, the silos of storage port facilities are still half full, which greatly worries operators at the start of the harvest in the Rouen hinterland. The northern community market is still absent. exporters lack visibility on shipping prospects, while the first batches of barley should arrive at the port of Rouen as early as next week. “We risk having a rush and then a false start, with the Paris 2024 Olympic Games which will disrupt river transport of grain on the Seine”, comments a river freight specialist.
Furthermore, to “examine the response to the damage” in connection with the “exceptional situations” generated by the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games (JOP 2024), the Prime Minister decided to create a “compensation commission”, indicates a press release from its communications department dated June 24. The latter specifies that before the 2024 JOPs, this commission will establish “the guidelines relating to damages and their compensation” and, that after the 2024 JOPs, it “will receive requests from interested parties and will formulate compensation proposals to the competent ministries”. Since June 7, the president of the commission, Dominique Laurent, State Councilor and former president of the French Anti-Doping Authority, has been meeting with representatives of the professions concerned, including those involved in river transport and shippers. of grains, in order to expose the device to them. The commission can be contacted at the following address: [email protected]
Kevin Cler and Karine Floquet
But
New harvest prices are crumbling
Corn prices fell between June 19 and 26 on Euronext and the French physical market in the new harvest, like Chicago. The market is counting on an increase in crop rotation estimates in the United States between March and June 2024. On this subject, the USDA report of June 28 will be followed. Another stock study will be released the same day. At the French level, the yellow seed loses its attractiveness in formulation, but coverage is still reported, especially in July. On the other hand, the market would be calmer in August-September.
Barley
Rather disappointing start to the harvest
Feed barley prices have fallen from one week to the next, as have soft wheat. The commodity is quite competitive in formulation, triggering some transactions on the domestic market. Demand from EU countries is not overflowing, however, as the national grain lacks attractiveness compared to its competitors. The start of the harvest is considered rather disappointing for the moment. Yields are said to be quite low, and specific weights small. Nevertheless, there are still many plots to mow.
Malting barley
Price stability
In malting barley, prices have hardly changed between June 19 and 26 for the new campaign, with the 2023 harvest only occasionally quoted. On the business side, buyers and sellers are looking at each other like dogs in china. The first echoes of the crops indicate small calibrations.
Durum wheat
Prices still under pressure
Quotations for durum wheat are down slightly from one market price to the next, again due to strong international competition. Only Italy would show some interest. In Canada, private analysts are talking about a good harvest of durum wheat, exceeding 6 Mt. Some are talking about a figure of between 6.5 Mt and 7 Mt.
Writing
Soft wheat
- Progress of the harvest in Russia, for the moment better than expected.
- Harvest progresses in the United States under favorable conditions.
- USDA report to be released on June 28 and that of StatCan this June 27.
- What will India decide regarding its imports?
Orgy
- First echoes of disappointing yields in France.
- What about the precipitation in France in the coming days?
- Continued low international demand.
But
- USDA report of June 28: corn sole expected to increase in the United States.
- USDA report of June 28: what stock level in the United States?
- Progress of harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
Kevin Cler
