The JDD. The left, united behind its New Popular Front, recorded 28.5% of voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections, behind the National Rally (36%) according to Ifop. Has victory never been so close for either?
Bruno Cautres. The voting intention scores that the polls predict, both for the New Popular Front and for the National Rally, are indeed high, particularly in the case of the RN. For the new coalition of the left, we are close (even a little short) on the total number of left-wing lists in the European elections.
The projections in seats must be seen as trends, it is in fact difficult to transform the votes into seats when the first round has not taken place and we do not know the qualifiers for the second round, the withdrawals and what effects the results of the first round will have on the voters.
However, in the case of the RN, this is the first time that it seems so close to winning one of the two major elections of our political life. This situation is a major political fact. For the left, after good legislative elections in 2022, this is the first time, since 2017, that it seems to be resuming the role of challenger capable of being the second pole in the National Assembly, or even more.
This situation is a major political fact
It is sometimes agreed that the voter’s fault is his conformism which pushes him to vote reasonably, rather than to commit to real change. Isn’t this precisely the end of the romanticism of the grocer who only thinks about his shop at election time?
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You know, you can’t be too definitive on these questions.
Voting always involves a plurality of motivations and considerations for the voter: the weight of sociological variables is always very important (look for example at the RN vote among workers or small independents), that of major ideological affiliations and values too.
And then there are what voting specialists call the effects of context and electoral offer: the candidates, their proposals. But with these legislative elections, we see, as in the European elections, a dimension of “sanction vote” against Emmanuel Macron whose popularity and public image have seriously deteriorated since June 9. There will undoubtedly be a “rejection vote” on June 30 and July 7.
For whom do the working classes give their votes? This question is both quantitative and symbolic, with each party seeking to capture this vote while claiming to represent it.
In the Cevipof electoral panel, a longitudinal survey where we have been following voters for several years, we see very clearly that workers and employees (a social group with many women who have precarious professional situations) go above all and largely for the RN, particularly those aged 40-60. Between a quarter and a third of these categories intend to vote for the united left in the legislative elections. The presidential party and its allies capture almost no votes from popular categories. We see that the macronie fails to capture expectations in terms of cost of living and/or social justice.
Macronie fails to capture expectations
The Ministry of the Interior is experiencing a strong demand for proxies. Could this burst of mobilization allow the presidential camp to avoid a fiasco?
I note first of all that the number of proxies is simply a little greater today, than that of the first round of the 2022 legislative elections. The very short time of the electoral campaign has, of course, played on the dynamics of the requests for proxies since June 9, as well as the coincidence with the start of the summer vacation. The sociologist of the proxy is generally more that of participationists, a more senior electorate and established in life.
But there are also quite a few young people aged 18 to 29. The terms of power of attorney have evolved and you can do everything online, provided you have the latest version of the identity card and it is not impossible that this will lead more young people to make a power of attorney. We know nothing about the electoral choice of the “proxies”, who have the proxies and who are supposed to vote for the candidate that their “principals” asked them to choose for them.
So it’s very difficult to know who this favors.
Particularly scrutinized, the participation of young people is slightly below the national average. 56% of 18-24 year olds plan to vote, 55% of 25-34 year olds according to Ifop. Should we see a lack of interest in public affairs among the younger generation?
No not at all ! “Young people” (a category that must be segmented, because there are several young people) are interested in the public good and politics. It is much more that they do not see voting as necessarily the most effective means of political action. There is always in “youth” the desire to understand the political world in which they live, to debate political proposals. But “youth” is also a time of discovery of other forms of political action such as demonstrations. According to several researchers, new generations are more susceptible to short-term commitment, to causes rather than partisan commitments.
There is always in “youth” the desire to understand
It is difficult to understand the voting intentions of voters during these early legislative elections, as the campaign is rushed and the choices remain uncertain. Can we reasonably give credit to the polls?
Yes ! Well-done polls, those carried out by opinion survey professionals, are reliable, as they showed in the European elections. It is the projection in seats which is a more delicate exercise.
* Bruno Cautres is a CNRS researcher at Cevipof, the Political Research Center of Sciences Po, and a teacher at Sciences Po.
