by Helen Coster and James Oliphant
ATLANTA (Reuters) – Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off on Thursday evening (Friday 0100 GMT) in Atlanta, Georgia in a highly anticipated first debate ahead of November’s U.S. presidential election, giving voters a chance to gauge the cognitive abilities of the two candidates, the oldest to ever run for the White House.
The face-to-face in prime time on CNN between the Democratic president, aged 81, and his Republican predecessor, 78, should attract many viewers. In 2016, the first debate between Donald Trump and the Democratic Party candidate at the time, Hillary Clinton, was seen by 84 million viewers – a record.
For Joe Biden as for Donald Trump, the moment is delicate and comes with a mixture of risk and opportunity. This first debate comes more than four months before the November 5 election, unusually very early in the campaign, and while the polls show the two rivals neck and neck in voting intentions. A second and final debate will take place on September 10.
The political climate is tense in the United States, deeply divided and where two thirds of voters say they are worried about a possible outbreak of violence after the election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out in May which implicitly recalls the stigma of the Bloody riot led by supporters of Donald Trump at the Capitol in Washington on January 6, 2021.
The incident led to a judicial investigation into the then-incumbent White House official for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result he lost to Joe Biden.
BE CAREFUL AT THE MOMENT OF ASTRACTING
Donald Trump, targeted by three criminal proceedings and who has suggested in the past that he would punish his political enemies in the event of victory in November, must prove to undecided voters that he does not represent a risk for democracy, as repeated Joe Biden.
The Democratic president must, for his part, avoid any slips of the tongue and appear comfortable in verbal jousting, the Republicans accusing him for months of having declining mental faculties because of his age.
While the two campaign teams are watching for a potential misstep from the rival candidate to accuse him of failing cognitive abilities, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will neither have room for error during the debate.
It is “possibly the most anticipated and important” presidential debate ever, said Aaron Kall, a University of Michigan professor and expert on presidential debates, citing the candidates’ neck-and-neck polling, the country’s political polarization and the possibility that the night will be prone to blunders.
According to him, for Joe Biden in particular, any moment of confusion or forgetfulness would be circulating in the American media, with questions about his age and new speculation that the Democratic Party might decide to invest another candidate at his national convention in August.
Although neither candidate has a clear lead in the opinion polls, Joe Biden is behind Donald Trump in the polls carried out in most of the so-called “swing” states, and the Republican candidate has rebuilt his gap. facing the Democratic president regarding campaign donations collected.
“CHANGE THE STATUS QUO”
“Joe Biden needs to change the status quo, and this debate is the best opportunity for him yet,” commented Jacob Rubashkin, election analyst for the non-partisan website Inside Elections.
“Right now, voters view this race more as a referendum on Biden rather than an electoral choice, and that’s a dangerous situation for him,” he added. “The debate can allow him to play on the angle of contrast, and Trump will also be in the spotlight.”
Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump are truly popular with many Americans, and many remain ambivalent about their vote. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, around one in five voters say they have not yet chosen a candidate and are considering voting for an alternative candidate or even abstaining.
“They are horrible candidates,” lamented Kathy Elder, a 59-year-old sales executive who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 before voting for Joe Biden in 2020. She indicated that she would watch Thursday’s debate to try to make her choice, although both candidates, she said, make her cringe – for different reasons.
Kathy Elder criticizes Joe Biden for his slowness when he speaks, and is worried about what may “come out of the mouth” of Donald Trump.
THE SHOCK OF THE BALANCE SHEET
The two candidates do not like each other and make no effort to hide it. During their first debate four years ago, Donald Trump regularly spoke aggressively over Joe Biden when the latter spoke, an attitude that exasperated many voters.
CNN intends to avoid such a pitfall Thursday evening by cutting off the microphone of the two rivals when they are not given the floor. Other arrangements for this first debate: there will be no spectators, and candidates are not allowed to bring notes or other assistance – although they will have paper and a pen to take notes during the debate.
In Joe Biden’s team, it is indicated that the Democratic president intends to emphasize the role played by Donald Trump in restrictions on access to abortion in the country, present it as a danger for democracy and recall the chaos of the Trump presidency.
The debate will show the contrast between Joe Biden’s efforts to help Americans and Donald Trump’s “crazy retaliation campaign,” a Biden campaign spokesperson said.
Opposite, Donald Trump’s advisers make it known that the Republican candidate will criticize Joe Biden’s management of the border with Mexico, with record flows of illegal migrants, as well as the economic record of the Democratic president and his lack of global leadership , on the sidelines of the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
A spokesperson for the Trump campaign said she considered this Thursday evening as “a perfect opportunity for President Trump to highlight his strengths in the face of Joe Biden’s weaknesses, to highlight the successes of his record in comparison to Joe’s failures. Biden.”
(Helen Coster and James Oliphant; French version Jean Terzian, edited by Blandine Hénault)
