Lula, champion of the Earth or gravedigger of the climate ? To the COP29 in Azerbaijan or at the G20 in Rio, the Brazilian president readily displays ambitious ecological positions. But off the international media radar, the leader supports oil exploration and the construction of a road through the Amazon rainforest.
« He clearly does the splits, with a form of hypocrisy »notes Catherine Aubertin, research director at the Research Institute for Development (IRD). For a coordinator of the Brazilian collective Coalition for the Climate, cited by International mailthe Lula government demonstrates « discreet denialism »Who « recognizes climate change and has policies to combat it »but continue « betting on false solutions, which will not reduce global warming ».
The main symptom of this duality is the leader's unfailing support for black gold. « In its climate commitments made for the COP29Brazil does not talk about oil at allnotes Catherine Aubertin. On the contrary, the country plans to increase its oil exports by 36 % by 2035, according to calculationsONG. »
« In its climate commitments for COP29Brazil does not talk about oil at all »
At the beginning of November, the president reaffirmed his support for oil prospecting in the ocean, some 540 km from the mouth of the Amazon. In contradiction with its own administration: several experts from the Brazilian environmental agency, Ibama, rejected this project offshorewhich could threaten an exceptional marine ecosystem.
« This project could have a significant impact on the region's environment and threaten the livelihoods of indigenous people who live and depend on the river, including at least one uncontacted group »emphasizes Priscilla Oliveira, of theONG Survival International. But for Lula, it is a « opportunity to grow this country ».
Paradoxically, the leader maintains that part of oil revenues could be used to finance the energy transition. Income which is anything but negligible income for the country, which is the largest producer in Latin America. The opposition of Marina Silva – Lula's fierce Minister of the Environment – appears insufficient in the face of the financial weight of black gold.
A road that would increase deforestation in the Amazon
Another bone of contention between the president and his minister, the project to rehabilitate a trans-Amazon road. Last September, Lula announced the resumption of work to asphalt a section between the cities of Porto Velho and Manaus, through the tropical forest.
A project inherited from the military dictatorship of the 1970s, this road BR-319 was to make it possible to colonize the Amazon. But part of the route remained as a track, almost impassable during the rainy season. The idea of tarring this portion has emerged in recent years, in the name of economic development and opening up.
Problem, scientists and environmentalists fear that the finalization of this road will give a huge boost to deforestation. « Deforestation generally takes place in a fishbone shape along roads. »indicates Catherine Aubertin. In short, land clearers open illegal paths using existing asphalt.
« The road could lead to deforestation in the very heart of the forest massif »
« Deforestation is already three times more significant on the asphalted sections of the road. BR-319remarks Lucas Ferrante, biologist from the University of Amazonas, interviewed by RFI. If the road is paved, we have calculated that the region will suffer deforestation 1,200 % higher than the deforestation observed in 2011 when the road was not passable. » Or a deforested area equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom, according to the researcher.
With disastrous consequences for the indigenous peoples living in this region:« Paving hasn't even started yet and deforestation levels in surrounding areas have already increaseddescribes Priscilla Oliveira. For example, over the past three years, the uncontacted territory of the Jacareúba Katawixi people has seen an increase in deforestation. »
Another fear, for Catherine Aubertin: « So far the forest has been attacked on the edges, but the road could lead to deforestation in the very heart of the forest. »she explains. A potential catastrophe, just as tree cutting has started to slow down: between August 2023 and July 2024, deforestation in the Amazon fell by 30.6 %, reaching its lowest level in nine years.
A president bound hands and feet » ?
Why does Lula support such an ecocidal project? ? « He doesn't have his hands completely freeestimates the research director. Congress is dominated by conservatives, with many representatives of agribusiness, and therefore large landowners. He's a bit tied hand and foot. » The leader thus advances on a crest line, to the detriment of the environment. « There have been efforts made in the Amazoncontinues Catherine Aubertin. But other regions, like the Pantanal or the Cerrado, are in dramatic situations. »
Stuck at the national level, the leader uses his verve and his aura on the world stage. But from words to actions, there is a gap that Lula will have difficulty crossing. Therefore, there is little to expect for the climate from Brazilian diplomacy.
At the G20 in Rio, which runs until November 19, President Lula hopes above all to score points on social issues, notably through the launch of a Global Alliance against hunger and poverty. In Baku, Brazil — host of the next COPin 2025 — seems to condition its climate ambition on the amount of forest carbon credits and funds allocated for the preservation of the Amazon.
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