In May, phosphate market observers noted a notable phenomenon: raw phosphate prices reached their lowest level since 2021, stabilizing at $152.5 per tonne. This decline represents a significant drop of 56% since their peak in 2023, marking a period of decline for a crucial sector in the global agricultural industry.
This downward trend is not isolated. The courses of DAP, another key indicator in the field of phosphate fertilizers, also recorded a decrease, settling at 522 dollars per tonne in May, which represents a decline of 4% compared to the previous month and 15% since its peak in March. This development is largely attributed to the recovery of Chinese exports, coupled with a seasonal slowdown in agricultural demand.
Several economic and industrial factors contribute to this price modulation. First, the moderation of crop costs as well as of essential inputs such as natural gas, ammonia and sulfur play a crucial role. These elements, combined with persistent uncertainties regarding supply, demand and fluctuations in energy and agricultural prices, create a complex context for phosphate market players.
Future prospects remain mixed. Despite the current downward pressure, there are elements that could reverse this trend. Notably, potential supply restrictions from major producing nations like China and Russia could limit supply in the global market. Additionally, an anticipated recovery in demand in key regions such as Asia, the Americas and Europe could boost prices in the medium term.
