Since the European Union’s total embargo on Russian petroleum products in February 2023, Russia has redirected its exports mainly to Asia. This shift has allowed countries like China and India to benefit from cheaper prices for fuel oil and VGO, replacing more expensive Urals barrels. In May, direct shipments of fuel oil and VGO from Russian ports to India increased to 0.7 million tonnes, compared to 0.6 million in the previous month. Fuel oil loadings to China also increased, rising to around 520,000 tonnes in May from 450,000 tonnes in April.
Evolution of flows to other regions
Exports of dirty petroleum products to Saudi Arabia doubled in May, reaching 430,000 tonnes. This fuel oil is used for the production of electricity during the hot season. On the other hand, loadings of Russian fuel oil to the Ain Sukhna terminal in Egypt fell to 200,000 tonnes, compared to almost 500,000 tonnes in April. Deliveries of VGO and fuel oil to Malaysia increased to 320,000 tonnes from 190,000 tonnes in April, while exports to Fujairah fell slightly from 60,000 tonnes to 90,000 tonnes. In addition, around 450,000 tonnes of VGO and fuel oil loaded in Russia were transferred by transhipment near Greece and Malta, with the majority of these cargoes destined for Asia.
Perspectives et analyses
This export trend reflects not only Russia’s adaptation to European sanctions, but also an opportunity for Asian countries to diversify their energy supplies at lower costs. Asia’s growing energy needs, particularly in India and China, will likely continue to drive these trade flows. Exports to markets like Saudi Arabia and Malaysia also show the flexibility and breadth of Russian distribution networks, despite Western restrictions. Looking ahead, it will be crucial to monitor how these trade dynamics evolve, particularly based on seasonal variations in demand and possible adjustments to international energy policies. The impact of sanctions and economic countermeasures could also play a key role in Russian export strategies.
The strategic distribution of Russian exports to Asia and other regions shows significant resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges, while strengthening energy ties with new economic partners.
