The transition to the second part of the campaign will be tension-free. Wheat harvests have started in the southern hemisphere. 32 million tonnes (Mt) of grains will be produced in Australia and 17.5 Mt in Argentina by next January, according to the USDA, the American agricultural statistics agency.
In the coming weeks, nearly 30 Mt of additional wheat will be available for export. They will compete with cereals harvested last summer in the northern hemisphere, which have not yet been marketed. But according to Sevecon.ru, Russia is still delivering its wheat at a breakneck pace (more than 3.7 Mt in November).
Ukraine also draws a very positive assessment of the first four months of its marketing campaign. Last October, the country still shipped 1.6 Mt of wheat and 1.9 Mt of corn. Since January, it has exported more grains and ores (110 Mt) than in the whole of last year (100 Mt), according to UkrAgroConsult.
The uncompetitive EU
These performances were achieved at the expense of the uncompetitive European Union. At the end of week 19 (ended November 8), only 8.43 Mt of wheat had been exported since the start of the campaign, while 11.9 Mt had been exported a year earlier. Apart from the United Kingdom which imported three times more wheat (604,000 t versus 187,000 t in 2023-2024), all destinations are in decline. In France too, the results are grim. Due to a lack of grains, only 1.6 Mt of wheat was exported to third countries. Algeria boycotts French cereal. But sales resumed with the Cherifian kingdom.
Conversely, Kazakhstan is drowning in its wheat stocks. Its harvest was much larger (18 Mt) than announced at the start of the campaign (14-15 Mt), according to the USDA. The country has blocked its access to Russian imports and is looking for new export outlets to sell its wheat harvest. In years past, the country mainly traded around the Caspian Sea.
To start a new 2025-2026 campaign with a healthier domestic market, Kazakhstan will have to export up to 12 Mt of wheat by next June.
Obviously, this Kazakh abundance does not explain the decrease of around fifteen euros in the price of wheat in Rouen observed over the last four weeks. Prices of other cereals have also fallen. In Bordeaux, the price of a tonne of corn has fallen below the threshold of €200.
The strengthening of the dollar observed since the re-election of Donald Trump to the American presidency has not counteracted the downward movement.
But in the European Union, the anticyclonic conditions observed for nearly four weeks have allowed cereal growers to make up a large part of the delay in sowing their fields. In France, 78% of wheat sowings have been carried out (+16 points in one week). In the United States and Russia, precipitation has returned to the plains.
Prospects for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also reassure operators. But grain prices, and wheat in particular, are “fundamentally low,” according to the Russian company Sovecon, an expert in grain market strategies. They are expected to recover in the coming weeks for several reasons.
The 2024-2025 wheat campaign (794 Mt) remains in deficit of 10 Mt. Russia would only export 45.9 Mt by the end of next June since its production has once again been revised downwards ( 81.5 Mt; -1.5 Mt over one month) reports the Russian company. Furthermore, export taxes of 2,228 rubles per tonne (€21/t), introduced since October 30 (+€9.5/t in one month), would increase further in the coming months. And new quotas will govern exports. Finally, the harsh winter will soon reduce river traffic towards the Black Sea and, in Ukraine, the silos are emptying.
