VSThe forecasts take into account a return of this inflation to low rates in recent months and the resumption of the decompensation process, indicates BAM in a press release published at the end of the second quarterly meeting of 2024 of its Council, held this Tuesday in Rabat. Concerning the underlying component of inflation, which reflects the fundamental trend in prices, it stood at 2.1% on average over the first five months of the year and should remain close to this level by the end of 2025 , specifies the same source.
“The Council also took note of the good anchoring of inflation expectations as revealed by Bank Al-Maghrib’s quarterly survey of financial sector experts. These recorded a significant decline, returning in the second quarter of the year to 2.7% for the 8-quarter horizon and to 2.8% for the 12-quarter horizon.”, specifies BAM.
As for the transmission of previous monetary policy decisions to financial conditions, banks’ lending rates remained almost stable for the second consecutive quarter, their cumulative increase between the start of monetary tightening in September 2022 and the first quarter of 2024 being thus at 116 basis points. The increase in rates affected businesses more than individuals and was less significant for very small, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) than for large businesses.
Non-agricultural activities should strengthen at rates of 3.8% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025, while agricultural value added would decline by 6.9% in 2024, before rebounding by 8.6% in 2025, indicates BAM in a press release on the 2nd quarterly meeting of 2024 of its Council, held Tuesday in Rabat. The strengthening of non-agricultural activities would be driven in particular by the various projects launched and planned, the continuation of the dynamics of activities linked to tourism and the consolidation of household consumption in relation to the decline in inflation and salary increases, specifies the same source.
Concerning agricultural added value, BAM’s forecasts take into account a cereal harvest estimated by the Department of Agriculture at 31.2 million quintals (Mqx) and are based on the hypothesis of a return to a harvest average cereal production of 55 million quintals (Mqx).
The Central Bank also recalls that economic growth accelerated from 1.5% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2023, the result of an improvement of 3.5%, after 3.4%, in non-added value. agricultural, and a slight recovery of 1.4%, after a contraction of 11.3%, of the agricultural sector.
(with MAP)
