SIf we are to believe the polls, Emmanuel Macron could succeed in at least one of the bets underlying these legislative elections provoked by his dissolution of the National Assembly: remobilizing the electorate. Since he pressed the “red button”, he has been repeating it: these elections are intended to create “a jolt”, “an awakening”. Which, in his eyes, should of course allow him to regain a majority. But, at this stage, it is first of all through a massive return to the polls that this awakening and this start should be embodied. Indeed, one week before the first round, a record participation is taking shape.
According to Ifop, Friday June 21, 64% of French people said they intended to vote. This is 12.5 points better than in the European elections of June 9 (51.49%), 12 points better than in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections (51%) and 15 points more than in the first round. legislative elections of 2017 (49%).
This renewed interest concerns all age categories.
Anne Lacaud
In detail, this renewed interest concerns all age categories. Thus, among young people aged 18 to 24, 53% say they are ready to vote and 50% among 25-34 year olds. Beyond that, this participation index increases to 60% among those aged 35-49, 70% among those aged 50-64 and 73% among those aged 65 and over. Another notable element is that this index exceeds 50% also regardless of the professions: 65% among executives, 65% among intermediate professions, 60% among employees and 55% among workers. It reaches 73% among retirees.
“A very special moment”
“Unlike the usual participation, this time it is presented in a very homogeneous manner,” observes Frédéric Dabi, the general director of Ifop. All electorates want to vote. » And each for their own reasons: supporting or countering the extreme right, supporting or countering the New Popular Front, supporting the outgoing presidential majority or this fringe of Republicans who did not follow Éric Ciotti in his alliance with the National Rally…
“We have never experienced this since the last dissolution in 1997. We are living in a very special moment”
One thing is certain: if this desire to vote does not fade, with 64% participation, these 2024 legislative elections could be a great vintage. “We have never experienced this since the last dissolution in 1997,” recalls Frédéric Dabi. In the legislative elections that followed, participation was 67.98% in the first round and 71.08% in the second round. We are therefore living in a very special moment. »
This intention of not deserting the election is found in the very large number of proxies already established. Between June 10 and 20, the Ministry of the Interior has already registered more than a million – more precisely 1,055,067. This is therefore more than two years ago in the last legislative elections: in 2022, there there had been exactly 1,021,350. If the political context of the moment – a National Rally which has never been so close to coming to power, a left which despite its divisions managed to ally, a presidential majority threatened with a crushing defeat – explains this mobilization, the calendar is also important.
In 2022, the two rounds took place on June 12 and 19. There, the second will be held on the first weekend of the school holidays. “This is the first time in the history of the Ve Republic that we will vote on July 7,” insists Frédéric Dabi. The reason for this very large number of proxies? “42% of French people do not go on vacation,” he recalls. But, more generally, there is too much heterogeneity in the proxies to draw conclusions. »
Republican Front
As for who this participation can benefit, beyond what the polls show, one element emerges: the second round should present a completely different face than that of the last legislative elections. “If participation remains around 64%,” explains Frédéric Dabi, it should be possible to remain in the second round with 17%, which is much less than in 2022 when it was necessary to have achieved 26 to 27%. » While in 2022, there were only eight triangulars, this time they should be one of the markers of this election. “The order of arrival in the first round will therefore be very important,” warns Frédéric Dabi. Indeed, where the RN comes first on June 30, the pressure will be very strong on those who came in third position so that they withdraw in favor of the second in order to block the far right. And this, in the name of a new republican front.
Clearly, if the polls, which put the National Rally in the lead, were to be confirmed on June 30, the first round will therefore be decisive.
