Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev face off in the final day of the Nitto ATP Finals round robin on Friday. If Zverev beats Alcaraz, the German will claim first place in the John Newcombe Group. But Alcaraz himself really needs a victory. There are several different tiebreaker scenarios involving the match between Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, which will take place after this one. But winning this match would give Alcaraz a good chance of advancing to the final four; a victory in straight sets would allow him to clinch first place in the group.
Alcaraz appears to have a little more to play for going into this battle. However, I can't help but think that Zverev is the right player to return here.
Looking at recent form can be risky when a player with Alcaraz's talent is on the pitch. However, it's an important part of the handicapping process, and it certainly tells a much better story about Zverev. The German comes into this match having won seven straight, and the victories came courtesy of a very impressive group of players. Zverev eliminated Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Ugo Humbert, Rublev and Ruud. The victory over Humbert was to win the Rolex Paris Masters, a 1000-level event in which the Frenchman had previously knocked out Alcaraz.
