Download analysis note 145 – Is industry more carbon intensive in France than in Germany?
In reality, this gap is above all a reflection of bias in the construction of this indicator, which deals with complex economic situations and great heterogeneity in the manufacturing sectors. Indeed, there is a significant difference in the added value estimation models used on both sides of the Rhine: German statisticians include certain secondary services of industry (in particular commerce and R&D). , which is not the case in France. The impact on carbon intensity is significant: when we correct the industrial value added figures for this methodological bias, we see a faster decline in France than in Germany during the period 2013-2020 and the difference in The carbon intensity between the two countries disappears at the end of this period.
This statistical bias places technological or economic explanations in the background. In the case of cement, we show that the difference in carbon intensity becomes insignificant when the statistical bias is corrected: on the one hand, French cement contains more clinker but on the other hand the clinker self-sufficiency rate is higher in Germany, and the energy mix consumed by French cement plants is less carbon-intensive than in Germany.
Our work thus calls for greater homogenization, at the European level, of models for estimating the carbon intensity of the manufacturing industry: this is a prerequisite for the evaluation of dedicated environmental policies. Beyond statistical biases, there remain significant differences in certain sectors (metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.), the interpretation of which requires an in-depth analysis of the specificity of the French and German manufacturing sectors.
The opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors.
and are not intended to reflect the position of the government.
Belgium
