A scenario that is difficult to imagine for the Shiite militia, which is refusing it for the moment. The latter would have sufficient weapons and supplies to carry out “a long war” against the Hebrew State, Hezbollah spokesperson Mohammed Afif assured Monday. If it is true that the “party of God” continues to inflict blows on the Israeli army, it does not remain less considerably weakened. Is he trying to postpone the inevitable?
David versus Goliath
At least 36 soldiers and reservists of Israeli forces have died in Lebanon since September 30. But on his side, “Hezbollah has never been so weakened, both in terms of military capabilities, symbolic image in the Arab world and command on the ground“, estimates Adel Bakawan, director of the French Center for Research on Iraq (Cfri). According to the latest estimates from the Israeli army, the militia has seen almost 70% of the stocks (prior to October 7, 2023) of its unit of drones to be destroyed by the IDF. Comments denied on Monday by Mohammad Afif: “How can our stock of missiles decrease when we targeted the suburbs of Tel Aviv a few days ago? […] and used Fateh missiles for the first time “, he argued. On Tuesday, two Israelis were killed in Nahariya (north), after rocket fire from Lebanon.
Lebanese Hezbollah has not yet revealed all its cards: “Specialized missile units are not yet engaged in the battle”
While the war also rages on the communications level, the military resources of the armed group have at the very least been drastically reduced. Its missile and rocket capabilities have been degraded to the point that Hezbollah must be “thrifty” in the use of its munitions, assert the Israelis. For more than a month, the IDF has systematically targeted the infrastructure of the Shiite movement throughout southern Lebanon, degrading the capabilities of the special operations forces al Radwane, the Hezbollah’s elite unit intended to carry out ground incursions into Israeli territory.
“Israel has never been so strong and powerful in managing the balance of power in the Middle East“, comments Adel Bakawan. To the point of forgetting the military failures suffered by the IDF during its invasion of Lebanon in 2006. The chief of staff of the Israeli army, Herzi Halevi, approved the extension of land operations in the south of the Cedar Land, according to information revealed Sunday evening by the Israeli public channel Kan 11. The new plans approved for the northern command would notably provide for the expansion of land maneuvers to new areas, with the participation of several thousands of soldiers. In a message on
The “Donald Trump”
Very weakened, could Hezbollah accept Israeli conditions? “I don’t imagine for a second that Hezbollah will capitulate“, declares Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies. A temporary truce could nevertheless allow the militia to reconstitute its forces and its weapons stocks while waiting to resume its confrontation with Israel. “If Hezbollah agrees to demilitarize and become solely a political party, it will no longer have the means to recompose its militia subsequently.“, explains Adel Bakawan. Likewise, a withdrawal of the armed group from southern Lebanon”will deprive him of all the mechanisms allowing him to get back on his feet“, i.e. its infrastructures and tunnels.
In short, “everything will depend on Iranian strategy and whether the United States, Israel and Lebanon find a ceasefire agreement“, explains Mr. Razoux. However, it is difficult for the Lebanese government to conclude a truce without the agreement of the Shiite militia, a true “State within a State” in Lebanon and a major political power.
In Lebanon, “Hezbollah is perfectly able to guide, organize and determine the country’s major political strategies”
Only one certainty: the inauguration ceremony of Donald Trump as American president on January 20, 2025 will be a decisive turning point. “The arrival of the Republican is a determining factor for the negotiation of a ceasefire agreement“, acquires M. Bakawan.For the Iranians and Hezbollah, [le président américain actuel] Joe Biden is a man of principle, with whom it is difficult to negotiate. Donald Trump is a businessman, for whom everything is purchasable“. And conclude that “it is based on the billionaire’s first decisions that Iran and Hezbollah will really reconfigure their positioning in the balance of power” facing Israel.
