The price of a barrel of oil experienced a notable drop at the end of October 2024, reaching USD 74.65, a decrease of 4.14% compared to December 2023.
According to industry experts, this trend is mainly attributed to the de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, which has allayed fears of a major disruption in oil supplies.
This monthly drop of 4.14% represents continuity in a volatile oil market.
Analysts note that this fluctuation is also influenced by overall economic factors, including demand in China and OPEC decisions regarding production.
Indeed, forecasts indicate that the price of oil could remain in a similar range in the coming months.
Oil markets often react to geopolitical news. The recent stabilization of relations in the Middle East has allowed investors to regain confidence.
However, some experts warn that a further rise in tensions could quickly reverse this trend.
In France, this drop could result in a reduction in prices at the pump for consumers. Gas stations are already adjusting to the new quotes, and motorists could benefit from lower prices in the near future.
However, taxes and distribution margins continue to influence the final price. In other regions of the world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is more complex.
Oil-importing countries still face the effects of currency fluctuations and high logistics costs.
The DRC, for example, could see a slight drop in fuel prices in line with the global trend.
On October 3, 2024, the Minister of National Economy, Daniel Mukoko Samba, signed a decree revising downwards the prices of petroleum products.
In the West zone, the price of a liter of gasoline fell from 3,340 to 2,990.49 Congolese francs, a reduction of 13%. Diesel also experienced a similar drop, going from 3,435 to 2,979.73 CDF.
This decision comes in a context where the Congolese Government seeks to protect the purchasing power of citizens in the face of growing inflation.
The authorities have stressed that these adjustments are necessary to guarantee a regular supply of fuel while avoiding an overload on the public treasury.
The ongoing reforms also aim to reimburse the losses suffered by operators in the oil sector.
The Government has in fact started to reimburse the shortfalls accumulated by these companies due to price fluctuations and subsidies.
This is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the oil market in the DRC.
Despite these price reductions, challenges persist.
Experts also question the long-term impact of these declines on investments in the energy sector. A prolonged decline in prices could dampen exploration and production projects, which could create future shortages if demand increases.
Forecasts for 2025 are mixed. Some analysts predict an excess of supply which could cause the price of a barrel to fall as much as USD 60. Others believe that production cuts by OPEC could support prices above USD 70.
Mitterrand MASAMUNA
