Why Ukraine could rejoice in Donald Trump’s victory

Privately, his collaborators are increasingly frustrated by the procrastination and cowardice of the Biden administration, its reflex to fear an escalation with Russia to the point of being paralyzed, and the growing gap between its rhetoric “alongside of Ukraine for as long as it takes” and his actions which suggest otherwise.

The United States’ refusal to allow Ukraine to use its long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, its chronic delays in providing military aid (even that already approved), and its failure to offering strong security guarantees are increasingly seen as weakness and hypocrisy. Trump’s victory could offer Zelensky a way out of what looks like a bloody stalemate at best, a defeat at worst.

During his election campaign, the Republican promised to end the war within 24 hours. No one – perhaps not even Trump himself – knows what his peace plan actually consists of. For now, Ukrainian officials are relying on two public formulations.

The first, linked to the running mate, JD Vance, provides for the freezing of the conflict on the current lines and the forced neutrality of Ukraine, without security guarantees or obvious constraints for Putin. A second plan, favored by Ukraine, was presented by former Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Wall Street Journal. This plan emphasizes reinforced military and financial support to deter Moscow, while leaving open the prospect of NATO membership. Much could depend on which plan Donald Trump will be encouraged to favor.

The new US president is unlikely to completely abandon Ukraine, partly because of the views of his own Republican base. He certainly will not want to be the author of Ukraine’s defeat. But as a transactional politician, Trump is likely to demand something in return from Ukraine. This could be access to its natural resources, for example. He will care much less about liberal values.

Vadym Prystaiko, former Ukrainian foreign minister during the “Ukrainegate” blackmail scandal in 2019 (where Trump allegedly froze military assistance to Ukraine, already battling pro-Russian separatist forces in the east of the country, for force the Ukrainian president to fire a prosecutor who refused to open an investigation into the local affairs of Joe Biden’s son) suggests that Zelensky should do everything he can to impose his own logic on the new administration while Trump is still fixing things.

The change in Washington comes at a difficult time for Ukraine’s armed forces. After a year spent facing the Russian offensive, carried out at a staggering cost for Russia, with more than 57,000 Russians dead this year alone, Ukraine suffered its worst month of territorial losses since 2022 (some 620 km2 , although this represents only 1% of the country’s pre-war area). Russia is moving to several points and accelerating its progress.

It appears to be only a matter of time before Ukraine is forced to withdraw from the strategic heights around Kurakhove in Donetsk province, which could lead to a psychologically damaging entry into the neighboring province from Dnipro by the end of the year.

Today, the concern is less about what is happening on the front lines than about what they reveal about the tensions at the rear. Amid a breakdown in trust between society, the military and political leaders, Ukraine is struggling to replace battlefield losses with conscription, barely reaching two-thirds of its goal. Russia, for its part, is replacing its losses with recruitment under lucrative contracts, without needing to resort to mass mobilization. A senior Ukrainian military commander admits that troop morale has collapsed in some of the worst sections of the front. A General Staff source suggests that almost a fifth of the soldiers deserted their posts.

There is no indication that Ukrainian soldiers are about to give up fighting on a larger scale. For now, they have enough weapons to resist and enough ground to fall back if things go wrong. Ukraine still has many American weapons being delivered or scheduled for delivery. Russia, meanwhile, is facing pressures of its own, including high inflation that could cause serious problems next year. But Ukraine is likely to be hit first, perhaps in about six months.

Donald Trump would no doubt like to have his agreement ready before then, probably before he returns to his seat behind the Oval Office on January 20. The unknown element remains what the Kremlin would be prepared to accept. Sources close to the Russian leader have issued mixed signals about his willingness to negotiate: ready to freeze hostilities along the existing line of contact one day, pushing for a Ukrainian capitulation the next. Source warns of ‘complex issues’ that make quick peace deal ‘unreal’ Besides, Putin thinks his forces are winning, and with the Ukrainians in hindsight, he may not be wrong. “It makes sense that he would go further,” says the Ukrainian security source. “But military success is a deceptive thing. You can never be sure of what will happen tomorrow.”

The Russian president will have his own way of negotiating. With temperatures now near freezing across Ukraine, Russia is renewing its campaign to destroy much of the country’s energy infrastructure. These attacks are expected to intensify. “They will try to do something,” says Prystaiko. “They will destroy the network, try to assassinate the leaders. The next three months will be terrible. »