The day after a dissolution is like the day after a drunken evening. We have to get over it. But the majority deputies did not celebrate here, on the contrary. It’s more like a cold shower. “It was a surprise for everyone,” says an observer of the majority. “Last night, there was a reaction of astonishment, it was shock. First by the result, then by the President’s announcement. Everyone was a little stunned,” says an executive advisor.
“For many, it was a shock. It must be understood that the deputies feared being dissolved at the start of their mandate, again during the immigration law. Then they thought afterwards that they were quite peaceful. So last night, it was a surprise,” explains a Renaissance parliamentarian.
“I don’t have a minute”
And here are the 250 Renaissance, Modem and Horizons deputies forced to go back to coal, in an express campaign lasting barely three weeks. “I don’t have a minute. I am in the process of launching my campaign and it is not an easy task,” texts an MP, taken by surprise, like all his colleagues. Same thing for a minister who is now fully involved in the campaign.
Some are still trying to understand the idea, with the furious impression that going to the polls now amounts to sending them to the punchline and would be madness. “I hear that a lot,” slips an advisor, who notes that Emmanuel Macron has kept his disruptive side, as they said in 2017:
The President preserves his ability to surprise everyone. He is never where we expect him. Each time, it succeeded.
“Rather strange” decision by the President
For Modem deputy Jean-Louis Bourlanges, it will be without him. He announced to Le Figaro that he was not running again. A decision taken “long ago”, in the event of dissolution. But in passing, this figure in the Assembly said he found the President’s decision “quite strange”. “Only the agreement between a moderate right and left, the type of coalition put in place by Macron in 2017, is capable of preventing the triumph of the National Rally. But they refuse this agreement,” points out Jean-Louis Bourlanges.
For the Renaissance senator from Yvelines, Martin Lévrier, “we cannot act as if nothing had happened”. In his eyes, it is justified to “give the French a voice again to find out if it was an outburst of anger, or if they are ready to stick their fingers in the socket”. “When you are a deputy, the confidence comes from the French,” recalls Martin Lévrier, who recognizes that “it is easier to say for me, who is a senator”. He admits that seeing the RN in Matignon, “it would be (his) anxiety”, but he is going to “fight against that”.
Nobody saw the blow coming
By taking out his dissolution card on the table, Emmanuel Macron surprised the leader. Nobody saw the blow coming. A minister we met two weeks ago didn’t believe it. “He will be forced to move because if he does not move, there will be a motion of censure adopted,” argued this member of the government. But the same added: “I am not in favor of saying that we put the RN in power. Never. I am too attached to my country”…
However, one of her colleagues raised the hypothesis last week. “People say that we could do a dissolution now, and in this case, there is the RN in Matignon,” said this minister, who was not a fan of the idea, which would amount to letting the RN burn out. , by being in charge, with a view to 2027. Perhaps proof that the idea was starting to circulate in the corridors of power.
The three hypotheses on Emmanuel Macron’s table Sunday evening
But everything remained secret until the last minute. A member of the government, present Sunday evening during meetings around the Head of State, recounts the options that were on the President’s table. “There were 3 hypotheses: the Prime Minister submitted his resignation at 8:02 p.m., it was refused or accepted; the referendum: a single one, several spaced apart or a drawer referendum. The themes discussed: institutions, with proportional and limitation of the number of elected officials, ecology, economic and social or the sovereign. Some went so far as to propose the question,” says this minister, “and dissolution,” an avenue therefore chosen. The only one, in the eyes of Emmanuel Macron, allowing us to respond to the political situation.
During the meeting of ministers, convened on Sunday evening at 10 p.m., some let their “body language” speak for them. Some were as if “frozen”, laughs a minister, who mimes her colleagues… “Several of us said that if we don’t acknowledge receipt, things were going to go badly”, says the same one, who modestly acknowledges that she was “not necessarily in that level of boldness and timing.” But collectively, we came to the idea that this question of dissolution was going to arise.”
“The idea is not to give the impression that we are there just to last because the soup is hot”
“We take a position of responsibility, we cannot say that we did not hear,” wants to believe a member of the presidential majority. “The President said that we had not decided to scull”, “the idea is not to give the impression that we are here just to last because the soup is hot, under the gold of the Republic,” says a Moroccan holder, who assures that “we don’t make political calculations.” And to add:
Even if it means embracing a different political situation, we might as well take back control and find the wind at our backs and be those who take responsibility for giving the French a voice again.
If a dissolution is necessary, then we might as well launch it immediately, just to remain (a little longer) the master of the clocks for Emmanuel Macron. “The President wanted to take back control, not let choices be imposed on him,” explains a majority official. What also takes everyone by surprise. The majority deputies, certainly. But also a divided left and the lost right. If the left leaves scattered, the Macronist candidates could more easily find themselves in the second round, and hope to win. And the right-wing deputies will have to choose.
This is “the clarification” that we hope for from the government, “where does everyone live?” “. A message sent to “those who have one foot in, one foot out”. “It’s not I like you on full moon days,” mocks a minister, who believes “it’s possible that there are alliances with certain LRs.”
For investitures, “on a case-by-case basis, with the ability to reach out to the LR and the PS”
As of Sunday, Minister Stéphane Séjourné, number 1 of Renaissance, affirmed that opposition deputies could be invested, if they are “part of the republican field” and on condition of adhering to the shared “project”.
“It will be case by case, with the ability to reach out to the LR and the PS, if necessary,” explains a Source within the majority. “And the LRs, like the others, must look at the results in their circle, and see what the chances of winning are.” The snails must disgorge in short. “The next 24 or 48 hours will allow us to see things more clearly,” we slip.
For “the investitures, these are the three party leaders, Stéphane Séjourné, François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe, to which we add the president of the UDI, Hervé Marseille, and the President”, explains a government Source, according to whom “it is necessary be clinical and put the best people in the best places.” The attitude of Horizons, which reconvened its political bureau this Monday, will be scrutinized. Edouard Philippe was to speak during the day with Emmanuel Macron. “It consults in all directions” between deputies, says an observer in the front row.
“There is no point in hitting the RN, it victimizes them”
But with only two weeks of campaigning, from the submission of the lists, how can we convince? “There is no point in hitting the RN, it victimizes them”, the majority think, preferring to “give a vision”. But “it can’t be 25 ideas and a 352-page program,” we warn. The majority strategists rely instead on “4-5 strong ideas to lead the campaign”. Emmanuel Macron, again, will set the course during the week, before flying off to the G7.
And the Macronists claim to be winning. They want to believe it, despite the headwinds. “I think that the people who voted for Jordan Bardella on Sunday do not share all the ideas of the RN […] I think that the RN will not have a majority,” says François Patriat, president of the RDPI (Renaissance) group of the Senate, guest of the Public Senate morning. “This election, transformed into a national election, will not be the same election,” thinks this Emmanuel Macron faithful.
“We take the risk of losing, but for the chance of winning”
A relative majority for the RN is also a serious possibility. In this case, some are already imagining a form of “national union” and “coalition”, combining the right and part of the left, to avoid the extreme right in Matignon. But in this case, it would be a form of cohabitation, where Emmanuel Macron will have to agree to give up power.
A minister admits that everything seems possible. “We take the risk of losing, but for the chance of winning,” she says. Heads or tails. Gambling the future of one’s political family and the country on a very uncertain dissolution is a risky bet.
