“What should I do on the evening of June 9 if the RN wins by a large margin? » Emmanuel Macron had questioned his advisors and some former collaborators of Nicolas Sarkozy invited to dinner on April 30 at the Elysée. Around the table, no one had dared to put the scenario of dissolution on the table. The President of the Republic, in reality, already had in mind to press the button. He will keep his choice to himself. In the meantime, the Head of State has blurred his lines and hid his game. Including by explaining to La Tribune Dimanche: “It’s the election of European deputies. The conclusion will therefore be European. »
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Forty days later, the head of state took stock: “ Representatives of the far right reach almost 40% of the votes casts,” he declared on Sunday evening, in a surprise televised statement. “ The far right is both the impoverishment of the French and the downgrading of our country. So, at the end of this day, I cannot act as if nothing had happened. » The conclusion is clear: “ I have decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future through voting. I therefore dissolve the National Assembly this evening. »
In a few words, he has just established the fight against the extreme right as a major national cause. A double or nothing for Emmanuel Macron who, against all odds, launches his Blitzkrieg. A lightning war of twenty-seven days since he himself set the legislative elections for June 30 and July 7. The astonishment effect is perfect. All that remains is to execute the maneuver to avoid a Berezina at the beginning of July and the humiliation of having to open the Olympic Games ceremony flanked by Jordan Bardella as… Prime Minister!
“The president did not want that it disintegrates further”
As soon as it was announced, the president’s secret plan to get out of the political rut turned into a nightmare for many members of the majority who replayed the film “ stupor and Trembling “. On the left and right, no one is boasting. The same people who unbelievingly called for dissolution compare the president to a crazy person. The elected representatives of the National Rally are not really exultant. “This guy is crazy”repeat most political guests on television sets. “The president is a suicide bomber”sighs a former minister.
In the middle of the evening, François Bayrou tells us the reasoning which led Emmanuel Macron to opt for dissolution without waiting for the fall and a possible minority on the budget bill: “He didn’t want it to deteriorate further during the summer. He wants to take everyone by surprise with a broad coalition against the RN. »
So let’s go for three weeks of campaigning with the hope of demonstrating that the RN does not have the means to obtain an absolute majority. The calculation is simple: put all the elected officials of the Republican arc behind its lightning offensive. Starting with the LR who will have to choose between negotiating with the RN or joining the anti-extreme right coalition. Not won when we know the positions of the Ciotti-Retaileau-Marleix trio, without prodding behind the scenes by Laurent Wauquiez. By getting ahead of everyone, he also hopes to prevent the left from repeating the 2022 coup with the creation of Nupes, this electoral team imagined by Jean-Luc Mélenchon to bring together cabbages and turnips in a bad soup but to make elect 151 rebel deputies, communists, socialists and ecologists. On this side of the political spectrum, the left has certainly not finished gaining ground. Will he succeed in winning over the reformist left of the Insoumis? Not won.
“Write history rather than suffer it”
One last unknown remains to be resolved in the impossible presidential equation: who will lead the campaign? Emmanuel Macron himself no doubt but, perhaps, we will also see the presidents of the assemblies Yaël Braun-Pivet and Gérard Larcher, estimates a visitor to the Elysée. Gabriel Attal does not seem to be in the best position after failed European elections, according to this same Source. The time for clarification has therefore come on the right but also in the Macronist camp which will probably lose its most left-wing light horses.
By drawing a very Gaullian lesson from his heavy defeat in the European elections, Emmanuel Macron is redesigning his political space. Take all the risks. On July 7, we will know whether this dissolution was a stroke of genius or the fatal error of a sorcerer’s apprentice president. A new electoral setback would this time raise the question of his resignation. The president also concluded his speech by explaining that he preferred “ write history than suffer it “. There he is with his back to the wall. If he misses his shot, his dissolution will turn into immolation.
