If you are a fan of orange juice, you have probably noticed that bottles cost more in stores. The prices of fruit and vegetable juices have continued to increase in France for two years, according to INSEE. Between January 2022 and April 2024, they increased by almost a third. This increase experienced a lull during the second half of 2023 but has picked up again since the start of 2024, with an increase of almost 2.5% in four months.
Pure juice, 11% more expensive than a year ago
In a context of inflation of all food products, the case of fruit juices is particularly notable. With an increase of 4.9% between April 2023 and April 2024, they are at the top of the products which have increased the most, ahead of oils and chocolate bars, in the typical basket measured each month by the magazine 60 Millions de consommateurs .
This strong inflation is largely visible in orange juice, a flagship breakfast product. The pure juice version costs 11% more than a year ago and the concentrated juice, 24% more expensive, according to data from Circana, an institute specializing in consumer studies, reported by Le Figaro.
Serial bad harvests
Why this increase? There have been successive poor global orange harvests in recent years. Brazil, the world’s largest producer, has suffered several climatic hazards, including an unprecedented drought at the end of 2023, caused by global warming and the El Niño weather phenomenon.
But the sector’s difficulties are not limited to Brazil. In addition to drought, global orange production is affected by “yellow dragon” disease, specifies the Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD).
Present for around twenty years in Florida, in the United States, the disease is wreaking havoc there. Orange production is collapsing due to a reduction in yields and an increase in the acidity of the fruits which become inedible. Of bacterial origin and transmitted by an insect, the “yellow dragon” is now beginning to infest Brazil.
A new price increase to come
The spread of the “yellow dragon”, combined with climatic risks, does not bode well for future orange harvests. In its forecasts, published on May 10, the Brazilian association of citrus producers Fundecitrus anticipates a 24% drop in orange harvests in the São Paulo region, in 2024-2025, compared to the previous harvest.
The price of a bottle of orange juice is therefore unlikely to stop increasing and could even undergo an additional increase, of around 40 to 50 cents, according to Le Figaro estimates.
