An INSEE study, published this Wednesday, October 30, provides information on the greater or lesser probabilities of dying based on 20 data points. One date is more at risk than the others, and obviously varies depending on the individual and their birthday.
This is the question that some would surely like to have answered. Will we be able to know, one day, the date of our death? That would be January 3, according to an INSEE study published this Wednesday, October 30, which reports an overall drop in mortality in the country last year with 639,300 people dying.
From 2004 to 2023, January 3 “was the deadliest day” of the year with an average number of deaths of 1,900 compared to 1,600 over the entire period. For INSEE, this peak on January 3 could “partly” be explained by the desire to spend the end-of-year holidays “with loved ones as well as the desire to reach a new year” which could delay the onset of the death of people at the end of life.
Conversely, August 15 is the least deadly day of the year with 1,410 daily deaths on average, or 12% less compared to the entire period. Concerning the deadliest day, it is Tuesday with 1620 deaths on average and at least the most fateful day is Sunday with 1550 deaths on average.
Increased risk on your birthday
The INSEE study reveals another important point which is that of its anniversary date. Indeed, according to this, the probability of dying on your birthday is higher, particularly for men aged 18 to 39. From 1994 to 2023, the average death on that day was 6% higher than the average for the period. Men aged 18 to 29 and 30 to 39 are the most affected (+24% deaths on their birthday).
This phenomenon, called “birthday syndrome”has been observed in other countries, such as Switzerland or the United States. Several hypotheses are put forward. In Switzerland, road accidents, falls and cardiovascular accidents are more frequent on this day, which could be explained by excesses (alcohol, fatigue due to partying, etc.).
This date, which is so symbolic, would also be likely to cause a feeling of sadness and loneliness in lonely people. In Japan, for example, the risk of suicide increases on one's birthday. From an overall point of view, 639,300 deaths were recorded in 2023, or 35,900 fewer than one year – after a peak reached in 2022, “year marked by five waves of Covid-19, two episodes of flu and periods of extreme heat”. The number of deaths, however, remains 4% higher than the pre-pandemic level of 2019, notes INSEE.
