New York (awp/afp) – The dollar fell on Monday, currency traders not ruling out the prospect of a victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris after new polls on the American presidential election published this weekend.
Around 7:00 p.m. GMT, the American currency fell by 0.49% against the euro, to $1.0887, and fell by 0.25% against the pound, to $1.2957.
The Dollar Index, which compares the greenback to a basket of six currencies, fell 0.42%.
“The market got a little carried away, thinking that Donald Trump was a clear winner, and over the weekend, traders returned to a tighter situation,” commented Brad Bechtel of Jefferies.
The publication of a poll by the daily Des Moines Register, giving the Democratic candidate in the lead against the former president in Iowa, was a “big surprise”, according to analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Donald Trump has won in Iowa in each of the last elections.
However, the greenback had previously benefited from market bets on a new election of the ex-president, who plans to implement “inflationary policies, potentially reducing the ability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates. interest,” said Hal Cook, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“Forex traders are returning a little to their optimism linked to (a victory) for Donald Trump,” noted Mr. Bechtel.
At the same time, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 4.31%, compared to 4.38% at Friday’s close. Earlier in the day, they had fallen to 4.27%.
The outcome of the vote will be decided on Tuesday, with most polls showing the two candidates neck and neck.
“Volatility will increase” in the market as the election approaches, according to Brad Bechtel, who adds that “profit taking before (the election) would not be unusual.”
The Mexican peso also benefited from Kamala Harris’ improving prospects for victory. It jumped 0.81% against the greenback, to 20.12 pesos per dollar.
During his campaign, Donald Trump said he was considering introducing “terrible” customs duties in the event of electoral success, to “bring back” businesses to the United States.
Cours de lundi Cours de vendredi 19H00 GMT 21H00 GMT EUR/USD 1,0887 1,0834 EUR/JPY 165,57 165,77 EUR/CHF 0,9398 0,9424 EUR/GBP 0,8402 0,8386 USD/JPY 152,07 153,01 USD/CHF 0,8633 0,8700 GBP/USD 1,2957 1,2924
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